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The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations?

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  • David-Jan Jansen
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

Using daily data on inflation-indexed bonds, we find evidence of a negative relationship between ECB communication regarding risks to price stability - measured on the basis of the frequency and strength of the keyword �vigilance' - and changes in euro area break-even inflation. However, this result is only found for the second half of 2005. At that time, the start of a tightening of ECB monetary policy was increasingly likely. This suggests that communication should be closely in line with policy actions before it can be effective. Still, we also find that the economic significance of this type of communication has been small.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 148.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:148

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Keywords: central bank communication; ECB; inflation expectations�� ;

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References

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  1. Hördahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2007. "Inflation risk premia in the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 0734, European Central Bank.
  2. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
  3. Simon Kwan, 2005. "Inflation expectations: how the market speaks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct7.
  4. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Geraats, Petra M, 2002. "How Transparent are Central Banks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," Discussion Papers 0708-10, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  6. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Levin, Andrew & Swanson, Eric T, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 5808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2008. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 175-217, June.
  2. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. Paul Hubert, 2013. "The influence and policy signaling role of FOMC forecasts," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  4. Michael J. Lamla & Christian Conrad, 2007. "An den Lippen der EZB – Der KOF Monetary Policy Communicator," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 1(4), pages 33-45, March.
  5. Kosse, Anneke, 2013. "Do newspaper articles on card fraud affect debit card usage?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5382-5391.
  6. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Central Bank Forecasts as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  7. Thomas Mayer & Holger Schmieding & Manfred Jäger-Ambrozewicz & Michael Lamla & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ulrich Kater & Leon Leschus & Wolfgang Brachinger, 2011. "Zinserhöhung der EZB: Wie groß ist die Inflationsgefahr?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(14), pages 03-26, 07.
  8. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  9. Coffinet, J. & Frappa, S., 2008. "Macroeconomic Surprises and the Inflation Compensation Curve in the Euro Area," Working papers 220, Banque de France.
  10. Paul Hubert, 2013. "ECB projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  11. Martin Cihák & Katerina Smídková & Ales Bulir, 2008. "Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication," IMF Working Papers 08/252, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  13. Paul Hubert, 2013. "ECB projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  14. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.

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