Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation
AbstractUsing data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commerical forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of "naive" benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 8/RT/07.
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Antonello D'Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 609-620, 04-05.
- D'Agostino, A & Whelan, K, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 6092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonello D’Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information during the Great Moderation," Working Papers 200722, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- D’Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2006.
"(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability,"
Working Paper Series
0605, European Central Bank.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- D''Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0510024, EconWPA.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
- Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
- Faust Jon & Swanson Eric T & Wright Jonathan H, 2004. "Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information about the Economy?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006.
"Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?,"
NBER Working Papers
12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 2006. "Reflections on the yield curve and monetary policy," Speech 175, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Campbell, Sean D., 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Predictability, and Uncertainty in the Great Moderation: Evidence From the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 191-200, April.
- repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2006:i:mar20 is not listed on IDEAS
- Liebermann, Joelle, 2012.
"Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment,"
Research Technical Papers
07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Muto, Ichiro, 2013.
"Productivity growth, transparency, and monetary policy,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 329-344.
- Ichiro Muto, 2007. "Productivity Growth, Transparency, and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "Accuracy in forecasting macroeconomic variables in Iceland," Economics wp39, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
- Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
- Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & A. Jung, 2012.
"Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?,"
IWH Discussion Papers
5, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
- Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79925, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Kishor N. Kundan, 2010. "The Superiority of Greenbook Forecasts and the Role of Recessions," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 74, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- João Valle e Azevedo, 2011.
"Rational vs. professional forecasts,"
Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles,
Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "The great moderation Icelandic style," Economics wp38, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2014. "Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?," Working Paper Series 1635, European Central Bank.
- Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2012. "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201213, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Smith).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.