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Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria

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Abstract

We use unique survey data from Bulgaria’s currency board to examine the reasons for persistent incomplete credibility of a financial stabilization regime. Although it produced remarkably positive effects in terms of sustained low inflation since 1997, the currency board has not achieved full credibility. This is not uncommon in other less-developed countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. Our results reveal that incomplete credibility is explained primarily by concerns about external economic shocks and the persistent high unemployment in the country. Past experiences with high inflation do not rank among the top reasons to expect financial instability in the future.

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  • Neven Valev & John A. Carlson, 2004. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0424, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0424
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    Cited by:

    1. Neven T Valev, 2006. "From a Currency Board to the Euro: Public Attitudes Toward Unilateral Euroisation in Bulgaria1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 480-496, September.
    2. Jean Baptiste Desquilbet & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2004. "Credibility and adjustment: gold standards versus currency boards," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-692, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Begović, Selena & Adnett, Nick & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "An investigation into the credibility of currency board arrangements in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bulgaria," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 787-799.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credibility; Currency Boards; Financial Stabilization Programs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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