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The Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Sengupta, Rajeswari

Abstract

A key challenge facing most emerging market economies today is how to simultaneouslymaintain monetary independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration subjectto the constraints imposed by the Trilemma, in an era of widespread globalization. In thispaper we overview and contrast the Trilemma policy choices and tradeoffs faced by thetwo key drivers of global economic growth-China and India. China’s Trilemmaconfigurations are unique relative to other emerging markets in the predominance ofexchange rate stability, and in the failure of the Trilemma regression to capture aconsistently significant role for financial integration. In contrast, the Trilemmaconfigurations of India are in line with choices made by other emerging countries. Indialike other emerging economies has overtime converged towards a middle ground betweenthe three policy objectives, and has achieved comparable levels of exchange rate stabilityand financial integration buffered by sizeable international reserves

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt2xn3238g.

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Date of creation: 18 Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt2xn3238g

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Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences; Financial Trilemma; International reserves; Foreign exchange intervention; Monetary policy; Capital account openness;

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2008. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 14217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 2008. "Navigating the Trilemma: Capital Flows and Monetary Policy in China," Working Papers 252008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
  4. Vladimir Sokolov & Byung‐Joo Lee & Nelson C. Mark, 2011. "Linkages Between Exchange Rate Policy And Macroeconomic Performance," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 395-420, October.
  5. Ajay Shah, 2008. "New issues in Indian macro policy," Working Papers id:1478, eSocialSciences.
  6. Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Singh, Nirvikar, 2009. "Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets," MPRA Paper 13630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," NBER Working Papers 9867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael Hutchison & Rajeswari Sengupta & Nirvikar Singh, 2012. "India’s Trilemma: Financial Liberalisation, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 3-18, 01.
  9. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Sethy, Anmol & Balasubramaniam, Vimal, 2010. "The exchange rate regime in Asia: From crisis to crisis," Working Papers 10/69, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  10. ChangJin Kim & Jong-Wha Lee, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime And Monetary Policy Independence In East Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 155-170, 05.
  11. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 777-801, 09.
  12. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinna & Hiro Ito, 2010. "The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma," Working Papers id:3138, eSocialSciences.
  13. R. Kohli, 2012. "India’s Experience in Navigating the Trilemma : Do Capital Controls Help?," Governance Working Papers 23184, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  14. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "Outward Direct Investment from India," Departmental Working Papers 2009-14, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcelo Bianconi & Joe A. Yoshino & Mariana O. Machado de Sousa, 2011. "BRIC and the U.S. Financial Crisis: An Empirical Investigation of Stocks and Bonds Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0764, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2013. "China's Capital Controls - Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," CESifo Working Paper Series 4377, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Yu Hsing, 2012. "Impacts of the Trilemma Policies on Inflation, Growth and Volatility in Greece," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 373-378.
  4. Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2013. "Is China or India more financially open?," BIS Working Papers 410, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Sen Gupta, Abhijit & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Management of Capital Flows in India: 1990-2011," MPRA Paper 46217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Yu HSING, 2012. "Effects of the Trilemma Policies on Inflation, Growth and Volatility in Bulgaria," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(569)), pages 49-58, April.

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