Turkey's trilemma trade-offs
AbstractIn this paper, we study the trilemma configuration of the Turkish economy. The paper starts by empirically testing the Mundell-Fleming theoretical concept of an “impossible trinity” (trilemma) for Turkey, following the Aizenman, Chinn and Ito (ACI) approach. This includes calculating the trilemma indices and investigating their evolution over the period of 1998Q1-2010Q4, which is split into sub-samples according to the Turkey’s macroeconomic policies. We also introduce alternative empirical techniques in order to deal with possible misspecification problems detected in the ACI approach. These techniques include employing additional terms in the regression, Two Stage Least Squares and Kalman filtering. These analyses show how contributions of financial integration and monetary independence have increased from the first period to the last, with corresponding limitations on exchange rate stability. The analysis continues by exploring the implications of changes in the trilemma indices for inflation. Accordingly, it reveals evidence that trilemma indices have impacts on inflation for the period of 2003-2010. Finally, it finds that there is a key role for international reserves as trilemma trade-offs and their effects on inflation can be mitigated with their accumulation. *
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35623.
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Trilemma; exchange rate stability; monetary independence; capital openness; reserve accumulation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2012-01-10 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-CWA-2012-01-10 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-MON-2012-01-10 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nooman Rebei & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004.
"Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
417, Econometric Society.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
- Nooman Rebei & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 20, Society for Computational Economics.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2003. "Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?," Working Papers 03-43, Bank of Canada.
- Michael Hutchison & Rajeswari Sengupta & Nirvikar Singh, 2012.
"India’s Trilemma: Financial Liberalisation, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 3-18, 01.
- Hutchison, Michael & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2010. "India’s trilemma: financial liberalization, exchange rates and monetary policy," MPRA Paper 25327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2012.
"Trilemma policy convergence patterns and output volatility,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 269-285.
- Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2012. "Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility," NBER Working Papers 17806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2012. "Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5vb313vr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2012. "Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility," Working Papers 112012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.