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China's Exchange Rate Policy: The Case for Greater Flexibility

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  • Ivan Roberts
  • Rod Tyers

Abstract

Since the Asian crisis, the merit of the Chinese government's de facto peg to the US Dollar has been the subject of widening debate. This paper reviews the issues surrounding China's currency regime choice and assesses the case for greater fiexibility. Reform era exchange rate policies are examined along with the performance of the economy during and since the Asian crisis. In the Chinese context, the arguments for and against fixed exchange rates are then explained and assessed. Finally, an elemental comparative static macroeconomic model is used to examine the implications of domestic and external shocks under different exchange rate regimes and with differing degrees of capital mobility. The results support the view that more fiexibility would be beneficial to China and that this benefit can be expected to increase as capital mobility increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Roberts & Rod Tyers, 2003. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: The Case for Greater Flexibility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 155-184, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:17:y:2003:i:2:p:155-184
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8381.00166
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219.
    2. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Chinese exchange rate and price effects on G3 import prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 427-440.
    3. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," MPRA Paper 30440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Prayudhi Azwar & Rod Tyers, 2015. "Indonesian Macro Policy through Two Crises," CAMA Working Papers 2015-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
    7. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Yongxiang Bu, 2008. "China'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 17-39, February.
    8. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2010. "Chinese monetary policy and the dollar peg," Discussion Papers 2010/35, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Yuwen Dai, 2007. "Macro Regime and Economic Growth in China," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_015, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    10. Laurenceson, J. & Qin, F., 2005. "China's Exchange Rate Policy : The Case Against Abandoning the Dollar PEG," Discussion Paper 2005-70, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2007. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era--Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 188-210, March.
    12. Sajid Anwar & S. Zahid Ali, 2007. "Exogenous Shocks and Exchange Rate Management in Developing Countries," Finance Working Papers 22245, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    13. Chi-Wei Su, 2012. "The relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in China," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 33-56.
    14. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center.
    15. Jason Nassios & James A. Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2016. "Superannuation and Macroeconomic Growth and Stability," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-267, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    16. Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2007. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era--Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 188-210, March.
    17. Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio & Ledrut, Elisabeth, 2002. "Alternative Paths Towards EMU: Lessons from an Expanded Mundell-Fleming Model for the Accession Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1132, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, "undated". "Estimating China�s de-facto capital account convertibility," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0205, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    19. Robert Dixon & Zhichao Zhang & Yang Dai, 2016. "Exchange Rate Flexibility in China: Measurement, Regime Shifts and Driving Forces of Change," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 875-892, November.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ming He Goh & Yoonbai Kim, 2006. "Is The Chinese Renminbi Undervalued?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(1), pages 116-126, January.
    22. Yu Hsing & Wen-Jen Hsieh, 2009. "Currency appreciation, rising financial asset values, and output fluctuations in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 853-857.
    23. Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.

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