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Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank

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  • Meixing Dai

Abstract

In 2004, the People's Bank of China (PBC) is reported to have abandoned the quantity of money as its intermediate goal and to adopt some elements of the apparatus of inflation targeting, without giving up the managed exchange rate regime for the renminbi (RMB), the Chinese currency. We show in this paper, using a dynamic setting, that partially implementing the apparatus of inflation targeting by the PBC to improve the performance of monetary policy encounters various difficulties from out-of-equilibrium dynamics to macro-economic and financial instability. In this context, some macro-economic measures can be helpful for reducing disequilibrium. Further development of internal monetary and financial markets and assigning balanced weights by the PBC to inflation and output targets are necessary conditions for the regime to be stable.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies.

Volume (Year): 4 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 199-219

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:4:y:2006:i:3:p:199-219

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation targeting; renminbi (RMB); managed exchange rate; macro-economic and financial instability; JEL C LASSIFICATION : E52; E58; F41;

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References

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  1. Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Working Papers Series 36, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Huw D. Dixon & John Bennett, . "Monetary Policy and Credit in China: a Theoretical Analysis," Discussion Papers 98/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
  3. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
  4. Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
  5. Brandt, Loren & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2001. "Soft budget constraint and inflation cycles: a positive model of the macro-dynamics in China during transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 437-457, April.
  6. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2002. "Règle du taux d'intérêt optimale, prix des actions et taux d'inflation anticipé : une étude de la stabilité macroéconomique
    [Optimal interest rate rule, asset prices and expected inflation r
    ," MPRA Paper 14401, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2003.
  7. Tomas Holub, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Research and Policy Notes 2004/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Ivan Roberts & Rod Tyers, 2003. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: The Case for Greater Flexibility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 155-184, 06.
  9. Cargill, Thomas F. & Parker, Elliott, 2004. "Price deflation, money demand, and monetary policy discontinuity: a comparative view of Japan, China, and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 125-147, March.
  10. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guang Hua, 2002. "Household consumption and monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-52.
  11. Øistein RØisland & Ragnar Torvik, 2003. "Optimum Currency Areas Under Inflation Targeting," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Meixing Dai, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," Working Papers of BETA 2011-23, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  2. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
  3. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  4. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  5. Dai, Meixing, 2007. "The design of a ‘two-pillar’ monetary policy strategy," MPRA Paper 14403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.

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