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Règle du taux d'intérêt optimale, prix des actions et taux d'inflation anticipé : une étude de la stabilité macroéconomique
[Optimal interest rate rule, asset prices and expected inflation rate : a study of the macroeconomic stability]

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Author Info

  • Dai, Meixing
  • Sidiropoulos, Moïse

Abstract

Cet article étudie la stabilité macroéconomique lorsque la Banque Centrale intègre dans sa règle du taux d'intérêt optimale les cours boursiers. Nous montrons que lorsque la Banque Centrale a une forte aversion pour l'inflation en attribuant un poids important à l'objectif de l'inflation par rapport à celui de l'output (le cas d'un banquier « conservateur » au sens de Rogoff), le système économique risque d'être instable. La présence du prix des actions dans la règle du taux d'intérêt optimale de la Banque Centrale n'est pas à l'origine de l'instabilité. (English)This paper examines the macroeconomic stability when monetary authorities include asset prices in their optimal interest rate rule. We show that when the Central Bank has a strong inflationary aversion by giving more important weight to inflation target relative to output target (the case of a "conservative" central banker according to Rogoff), the economy is likely to be unstable. The presence of the asset prices in Central Bank's optimal interest rate rule is not a reason of instability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14401.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
Date of revision: Jun 2003
Publication status: Published in Économie Appliquée 6.4(2003): pp. 115-140
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14401

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Keywords: Politique monétaire optimale; règle optimale du taux d'intérêt; prox d'actifs; stabilité macroéconomique. (English)Optimal monetary policy; optimal interest rate rule; asset prices; macroeconomic stability;

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References

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  1. DURRE, Alain, 2001. "Would it Be Optimal for Central Banks to Include Asset Prices in Their Loss Function ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted In An Era Of Price Stability?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2342, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  5. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  6. David H. Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
  7. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  8. Andrew J. Filardo, 2000. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 11-37.
  9. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," CEPR Discussion Papers 2316, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The perils of Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  11. Timothy Cogley, 1999. "Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 42-52.
  12. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: Should It Be Modeled as an Instrument Rule or a Targeting Rule?," NBER Working Papers 8925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Monetary policy in a world without perfect capital markets," Working Paper 0115, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  18. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Meixing DAI, 2010. "Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy," Working Papers of BETA 2010-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  2. Dai, Meixing, 2007. "The design of a ‘two-pillar’ monetary policy strategy," MPRA Paper 14403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
  3. Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219.
  4. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," MPRA Paper 13780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Dai, Meixing, 2003. "Une note sur la règle du taux d’intérêt et le rôle de la courbe LM
    [A note on the interest rate rule and the role of LM curve]
    ," MPRA Paper 13779, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
  6. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2005. "Flexibility in inflation targeting, financial markets and macroeconomic stability," MPRA Paper 13864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Dai, Meixing, 2006. "Independent inflation-targeting regime versus monetary union: An analysis of dynamic stability under endogenous inflation expectations," MPRA Paper 15142, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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