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Règle du taux d'intérêt optimale, prix des actions et taux d'inflation anticipé : une étude de la stabilité macroéconomique
[Optimal interest rate rule, asset prices and expected inflation rate : a study of the macroeconomic stability]

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Author Info
Dai, Meixing
Sidiropoulos, Moïse

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Abstract

Cet article étudie la stabilité macroéconomique lorsque la Banque Centrale intègre dans sa règle du taux d'intérêt optimale les cours boursiers. Nous montrons que lorsque la Banque Centrale a une forte aversion pour l'inflation en attribuant un poids important à l'objectif de l'inflation par rapport à celui de l'output (le cas d'un banquier « conservateur » au sens de Rogoff), le système économique risque d'être instable. La présence du prix des actions dans la règle du taux d'intérêt optimale de la Banque Centrale n'est pas à l'origine de l'instabilité. (English)This paper examines the macroeconomic stability when monetary authorities include asset prices in their optimal interest rate rule. We show that when the Central Bank has a strong inflationary aversion by giving more important weight to inflation target relative to output target (the case of a "conservative" central banker according to Rogoff), the economy is likely to be unstable. The presence of the asset prices in Central Bank's optimal interest rate rule is not a reason of instability.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14401.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
Date of revision: Jun 2003
Publication status: Published in Économie Appliquée 6.4(2003): pp. 115-140
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14401

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Related research
Keywords: Politique monétaire optimale; règle optimale du taux d'intérêt; prox d'actifs; stabilité macroéconomique. (English)Optimal monetary policy; optimal interest rate rule; asset prices; macroeconomic stability.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "How Should Monetary Policy be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 7516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. David Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bernanke, Ben S & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Monetary policy in a world without perfect capital markets," Working Paper 0115, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Inflation targeting: Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 771-780, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Carl E. Walsh, 2002. "Teaching Inflation Targeting: An Analysis for Intermediate Macro," Journal of Economic Education, Helen Dwight Reid Foundation, vol. 33(4), pages 333-346. [Downloadable!]
  12. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Andrew J. Filardo, 2000. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 11-37. [Downloadable!]
  15. DURRE, Alain, 2001. "Would it Be Optimal for Central Banks to Include Asset Prices in Their Loss Function ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  16. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  17. Timothy Cogley, 1999. "Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 42-52. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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