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Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?

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  • Timothy Cogley

Abstract

On several occasions over the last few years, various economists and policymakers have expressed the opinion that the stock market was overvalued. They often compared the situation with the 1920s and warned that the U.S. economy was headed for a similar collapse. Some analysts also suggested that the Fed raise interest rates to slow the rate of "asset inflation," on the grounds that it would be better to burst a speculative bubble in its early stages than to let it develop and suffer the inevitable crash. This paper takes up the other side of the debate and argues that deliberate attempts to puncture asset price bubbles may well turn out to be destabilizing. ; Identification of asset price bubbles requires more knowledge about asset price fundamentals than central banks possess, and the inability to identify speculative bubbles makes it difficult to take timely and well-measured countervailing actions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 42-52

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1999:p:42-52:n:1

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Keywords: Stock market ; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.);

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  1. Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
  2. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
  4. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Working Papers 9304, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  8. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1993. "Movements in the Equity Premium," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 75-138.
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