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Value versus Growth: Time-Varying Expected Stock Returns

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  • Huseyin Gulen
  • Yuhang Xing
  • Lu Zhang
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Abstract

Is the value premium predictable? We study time-variations of the expected value premium using a two-state Markov switching model. We find that when conditional volatilities are high, the expected excess returns of value stocks are more sensitive to aggregate economic conditions than the expected excess returns of growth stocks. As a result, the expected value premium is time-varying: it spikes upward in the high-volatility state, only to decline more gradually in the ensuring periods. However, out-of-sample predictability of the value premium is close to nonexistent.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15993.

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Date of creation: May 2010
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Publication status: published as Huseyin Gulen & Yuhang Xing & Lu Zhang, 2011. "Value versus Growth: Time‐Varying Expected Stock Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 381-407, 06.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15993

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. M. Eskandar Shah & Sourafel Girm & R. Hudson, 2012. "Rationalizing the Value Premium under Economic Fundamentals in an Emerging Market," Working Papers 12010, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  2. M. Shahid Embrahim & Sourafel Girma & M. Eskander Shah & Jonathan Williams, 2013. "Rationalizing the Value Premium in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 13010, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  3. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2014. "Global Style Portfolios Based on Country Indices," MPRA Paper 53094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Pätäri, Eero & Leivo, Timo & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2012. "Enhancement of equity portfolio performance using data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 786-797.
  5. Hwang, Soosung & Rubesam, Alexandre, 2013. "A behavioral explanation of the value anomaly based on time-varying return reversals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2367-2377.
  6. Max Leandro Ferreira Tavares & Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo & Gustavo Silva Araujo, 2014. "The Influence of information asymmetry on the return and volatility of value and growth stock portfolios," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 11(1), pages 111-129, January.
  7. Galvani, Valentina & Gubellini, Stefano, 2013. "Mean–variance dominant trading strategies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 142-150.
  8. Kishor, N. Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik A., 2013. "The time-varying response of foreign stock markets to U.S. monetary policy surprises: Evidence from the Federal funds futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.

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