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The expected value premium

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  • Chen, Long
  • Petkova, Ralitsa
  • Zhang, Lu

Abstract

Fama and French (2002) estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure the expected rate of capital gain. We use similar methods to study the value premium. From 1941 to 2002, the expected HML return is on average 5.1% per annum, consisting of an expected-dividend-growth component of 3.5% and an expected-dividend-to-price component of 1.6%. The ex-ante HML return is also countercyclical: a positive, one-standard-deviation shock to real consumption growth rate lowers this premium by about 0.45%. Unlike the equity premium, there is only mixed evidence suggesting that the value premium has declined over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 87 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 269-280

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:87:y:2008:i:2:p:269-280

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Huang, I-Hsiang, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of the risk of value strategy: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 404-419, September.
  2. Victoria Atanasov, 2013. "The Size Effect in Value and Momentum Factors: Implications for the Cross-section of International Stock Returns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-180/IV/DSF66, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Jin Ginger Wu & Lu Zhang, 2010. "Does Risk Explain Anomalies? Evidence from Expected Return Estimates," NBER Working Papers 15950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Arnold, Marc & Wagner, Alexander F. & Westermann, Ramona, 2013. "Growth options, macroeconomic conditions, and the cross section of credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 350-385.
  5. Huseyin Gulen & Yuhang Xing & Lu Zhang, 2011. "Value versus Growth: Time‐Varying Expected Stock Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 381-407, 06.
  6. Hwang, Soosung & Rubesam, Alexandre, 2013. "A behavioral explanation of the value anomaly based on time-varying return reversals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2367-2377.
  7. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2010. "Expected returns on value, growth, and HML," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 552-565, September.
  8. Hernán Ortiz-Molina & Gordon M. Phillips, 2010. "Asset Liquidity and the Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 15992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ai, Hengjie & Kiku, Dana, 2013. "Growth to value: Option exercise and the cross section of equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 325-349.

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