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International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences

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Author Info
Massimo Guidolin
Allan Timmermann

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Abstract

This paper investigates the international asset allocation effects of time-variations in higher-order moments of stock returns such as skewness and kurtosis. In the context of a four-moment International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) specification that relates stock returns in five regions to returns on a global market portfolio and allows for time-varying prices of covariance, co-skewness, and co-kurtosis risk, we find evidence of distinct bull and bear regimes. Ignoring such regimes, an unhedged US investor's optimal portfolio is strongly diversified internationally. The presence of regimes in the return distribution leads to a substantial increase in the investor's optimal holdings of US stocks, as does the introduction of skewness and kurtosis preferences. The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

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Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 21 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 889-935
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2008:i:2:p:889-935

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Philippe Lambert & Sébastien Laurent, 2008. "Testing Conditional Dynamics in Asymmetry. A Residual-Based Approach," ECARES Working Papers 2008_009, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio choice over the life-cycle when the stock and labor markets are cointegrated," Working Paper Series WP-07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  3. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Eric Ghysels & Eric Renault, 2008. "On Portfolio Separation Theorems with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Attitudes towards Risk," Working Papers 08-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Chollete, Lorán & Heinen, Andréas & Valdesogo, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime Switching Copula," Discussion Papers 2008/3, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Working Papers 2005-075, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Renee Fry & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008. "A New Class Of Tests Of Contagion With Applications To Real Estate Markets," CAMA Working Papers 2008-01, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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