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Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences

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  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Allan Timmerman

Abstract

This paper proposes a new tractable approach to solving multi-period asset allocation problems. We assume that investor preferences are defined over moments of the terminal wealth distribution such as its skew and kurtosis. Time-variations in investment opportunities are driven by a regime switching process that can capture bull and bear states. We develop analytical methods that only require solving a small set of difference equations and thus are very convenient to use. These methods are applied to a simple portfolio selection problem involving choosing between a stock index and a risk-free asset in the presence of bull and bear states in the return distribution. If the market is in a bear state, investors increase allocations to stocks the longer their time horizon. Conversely, in bull markets it is optimal for investors to decrease allocations to stocks the longer their investment horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-006
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Higher Moments," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(1), pages 29-55, January.
    2. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2005. "Conditional Asset Allocation under Non-Normality: How Costly is the Mean-Variance Criterion?," FAME Research Paper Series rp132, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    3. Taboga, Marco, 2005. "Portfolio selection with two-stage preferences," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 152-164, September.
    4. Zhengjun Jiang & Martijn Pistorius, 2008. "Optimal dividend distribution under Markov-regime switching," Papers 0812.4978, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    5. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2007. "Simulating stock returns under switching regimes - A new test of market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 235-239, February.
    6. Marie Briere & Alexandre Burgues & Ombretta Signori, 2008. "Volatility Exposure for Strategic Asset Allocation," Working Papers CEB 08-034.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Markus Haas, 2007. "Do investors dislike kurtosis?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(2), pages 1-9.
    8. Bazgour, Tarik & Heuchenne, Cedric & Sougné, Danielle, 2016. "Conditional portfolio allocation: Does aggregate market liquidity matter?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 110-135.
    9. Julian, Inchauspe & Helen, Cabalu, 2013. "What Drives the Shanghai Stock Market? An Examination of its Linkage to Macroeconomic Fundamentals," MPRA Paper 93049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Goodarzi, Milad & Meinerding, Christoph, 2023. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," Discussion Papers 06/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2022. "Higher Moments Actually Matter: Spillover Approach for Case of CESEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-34, December.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2007:i:2:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2003. "How do Regimes Affect Asset Allocation?," NBER Working Papers 10080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Downside Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1191-1239.
      • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Elvira Caloiero & Massimo Guidolin, 2017. "Volatility as an Alternative asset Class: Does It Improve Portfolio Performance?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1763, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Rihab Bedoui & Houda BenMabrouk, 2017. "CAPM with various utility functions: Theoretical developments and application to international data," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1343230-134, January.
    17. Takahiro Komatsu & Naoki Makimoto, 2015. "Dynamic Investment Strategy with Factor Models Under Regime Switches," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 22(2), pages 209-237, May.

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