Simulating stock returns under switching regimes - A new test of market efficiency
AbstractA model of profits switches between four regimes with fixed probabilities; the rationally expected profits stream implies the stock market value. This efficient market model is not rejected by UK post-war time-series behaviour of either profits or the FTSE index.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 94 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Other versions of this item:
- Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2006. "Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes - a new test of market efficiency," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2006. "Simulating Stock Returns Under Switching Regimes - A New Test of Market Efficiency," CEPR Discussion Papers 5614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tom Arnold & Philip Hersch & J. Harold Mulherin & Jeffry Netter, 1999. "Merging Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1083-1107, 06.
- Sergio Rebelo, 2005.
"Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 217-238, 06.
- S. Rebelo., 2010. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
- Rebelo, Sérgio, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 5384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," RCER Working Papers 522, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goetzmann, William N. & Jorion, Philippe, 1999.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 1-32, March.
- William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "Re-emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 5906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1998. "Re-Emerging Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm111, Yale School of Management.
- William Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1998. "Re-emerging Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm50, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2000.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006.
"Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching,"
2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998.
"Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244.
- Rydén, Tobias & Teräsvirta, Timo & Åsbrink, Stefan, 1996. "Stylized Facts of Daily Return Series and the Hidden Markov Model," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 117, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990.
"Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July.
- Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989.
"A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989. "A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01.
- Massimo Guidolin, University of Virginia & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Strategic Asset Allocation and Consumption Decisions under Multivariate Regime Switching," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 349, Econometric Society.
- Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06.
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- Timmermann, Allan, 2000.
"Moments of Markov switching models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Stock markets, volatility and predictability
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2010-01-03 14:12:44
- Progress & data in economics
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-10-19 13:55:25
- Animal Spirits: A review
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-02-26 13:27:46
- ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2010.
"Can behavioral finance models account for historical asset prices?,"
Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 187-189, August.
- ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2009. "Can behavioral finance models account for historical asset prices?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Hatcher, Michael C. & Minford, Patrick, 2013. "Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.