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From the horse’s mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys

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Author Info
Gene Amromin
Steven Sharpe

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Abstract

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Article provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2005)
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:x:31

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Keywords: Stock - Prices ; Stock market;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Robert J. Shiller, 1999. "Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence," NBER Working Papers 7008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. James Claus, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
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  5. John H. Cochrane, 1997. "Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 3-37. [Downloadable!]
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  6. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios," NBER Working Papers 8788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Karen E. Dynan, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences: Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 391-406, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1996. "Market timing ability and volatility implied in investment newsletters' asset allocation recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 397-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Robert Engle, 2004. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 405-420, June. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 7409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, And Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Murillo Campello & Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2005. "Expected Returns, Yield Spreads, and Asset Pricing Tests," NBER Working Papers 11323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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