Simulating Stock Returns Under Switching Regimes - A New Test of Market Efficiency
AbstractA model of profits switches between four regimes with fixed probabilities; the rationally expected profits stream implies the stock market value. This efficient market model is not rejected by UK post-war time-series behaviour of either profits or the FTSE index.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5614.
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2007. "Simulating stock returns under switching regimes - A new test of market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 235-239, February.
- Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2006. "Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes - a new test of market efficiency," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-04-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2006-04-22 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-04-22 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
- Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989.
"A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
- Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1998.
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm111, Yale School of Management.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July.
- Rydén, Tobias & Teräsvirta, Timo & Åsbrink, Stefan, 1996.
"Stylized Facts of Daily Return Series and the Hidden Markov Model,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
117, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998. "Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
- Allan Timmermann, 1999.
"Moments of Markov Switching Models,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp323, Financial Markets Group.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006.
"Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching,"
2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
- Sergio Rebelo, 2005.
"Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 217-238, 06.
- S. Rebelo., 2010. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
- Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," RCER Working Papers 522, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Rebelo, Sérgio, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 5384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06.
- Tom Arnold & Philip Hersch & J. Harold Mulherin & Jeffry Netter, 1999. "Merging Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1083-1107, 06.
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990.
"Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
- Massimo Guidolin, University of Virginia & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Strategic Asset Allocation and Consumption Decisions under Multivariate Regime Switching," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 349, Econometric Society.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Stock markets, volatility and predictability
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2010-01-03 14:12:44
- Progress & data in economics
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-10-19 13:55:25
- Animal Spirits: A review
by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-02-26 13:27:46
- ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2009.
"Can behavioral finance models account for historical asset prices?,"
Cardiff Economics Working Papers
E2009/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2010. "Can behavioral finance models account for historical asset prices?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 187-189, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.