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Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability: Evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK

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  • Guidolin, Massimo
  • Hyde, Stuart

Abstract

We use multivariate regime switching vector autoregressive models to characterize the time-varying linkages among short-term interest rates (monetary policy) and stock returns in the Irish, the US and UK markets. We find that two regimes, characterized as bear and bull states, are required to characterize the dynamics of returns and short-term rates. This implies that we cannot reject the hypothesis that the regimes driving the markets in the small open economy are largely synchronous with those typical of the major markets. We compute time-varying Sharpe ratios and recursive mean-variance portfolio weights and document that a regime switching framework produces out-of-sample portfolio performance that outperforms simpler models that ignore regimes. The portfolio shares derived under regime switching dynamics implies a fairly low commitment to the Irish market.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Multinational Financial Management.

Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 293-312

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Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:4:p:293-312

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mulfin

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  1. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2005. "Small Caps in International Equity Portfolios: The Effects of Variance Risk," CeRP Working Papers 41, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  3. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, 09.
  4. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
  5. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  7. Jér�me B. Detemple & René Garcia & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2003. "A Monte Carlo Method for Optimal Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 401-446, 02.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," NBER Working Papers 10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1710, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01.
  11. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2007. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 667-688, 03.
  12. Butler, K. C. & Joaquin, D. C., 2002. "Are the gains from international portfolio diversification exaggerated? The influence of downside risk in bear markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 981-1011, December.
  13. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  14. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'reilly, 2007. "UK Stock Returns and the Impact of Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5-6), pages 872-888.
  15. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
  16. Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group.
  17. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Spillovers across U.S. financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Walsh, Brendan, 1993. "Credibility, Interest Rates and the ERM: The Irish Experience," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 439-52, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Hsin, Chin-Wen & Tseng, Po-Wen, 2012. "Stock price synchronicities and speculative trading in emerging markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 82-109.
  2. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2010. "Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the role of time-varying conditional correlations," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 366-380.
  3. Massimo Guidolin & Federica Ria, 2010. "Regime shifts in mean-variance efficient frontiers: some international evidence," Working Papers 2010-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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