Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Regime Change and the Role of International Markets on the Stock Returns of Small Open Economies

Contents:

Author Info

  • Don Bredin
  • Stuart Hyde

Abstract

"We examine the influence of US, UK and German macroeconomic and financial variables on the stock returns of two relatively small, open European economies, Ireland and Denmark. Within a nonlinear framework, we allow for time variation via regime switching using a smooth transition regression (STR) model. We find that US (global) and UK and German (regional) stock returns are significant determinants of returns in both markets. Further, global information represented by oil and US asset price movements drive changes between states in each market. Significantly, the role of country-specific domestic variables is typically confined to a single state while global and regional variables pervade all states." Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2007.00361.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Financial Management Association in its journal European Financial Management.

Volume (Year): 14 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 315-346

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:315-346

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1354-7798
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1354-7798

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. L. Baele, 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/189, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  3. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
  4. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
  5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  6. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
  7. Connolly, Robert A. & Wang, F. Albert, 2003. "International equity market comovements: Economic fundamentals or contagion?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 23-43, January.
  8. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
  9. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  10. Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1999. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp335, Financial Markets Group.
  11. Gottheil, Fred, 2003. "Ireland: what's Celtic about the Celtic Tiger?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 720-737.
  12. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01.
  13. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Cal Muckley, 2004. "Dynamics of Equity Market Integration in Europe: Evidence of Changes over time and with events," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp019, IIIS.
  14. Mark Holmes & Ping Wang, 2003. "Oil Price Shocks and the Asymmetric Adjustment of UK Output: A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 181-192.
  15. Vihang Errunza & Ked Hogan, 1998. "Macroeconomic Determinants of European Stock Market Volatility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(3), pages 361-377.
  16. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
  17. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
  18. Cauchie, Severine & Hoesli, Martin & Isakov, Dusan, 2004. "The determinants of stock returns in a small open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 167-185.
  19. M Sensier & D R Osborn & N Öcal, 2002. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 10, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  20. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W., 2004. "Forecasting with a nonlinear dynamic model of stock returns and industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 321-342.
  21. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2003. "Recursive Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamics in UK Stock Returns," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(4), pages 381-395, 07.
  22. Charlotte Christiansen, 2010. "Decomposing European bond and equity volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 105-122.
  23. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  24. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2001. "Nonlinearities, cyclical behaviour and predictability in stock markets: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 459-482.
  25. Tom Engsted & Carsten Tanggaard, 2004. "The Comovement of US and UK Stock Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 593-607.
  26. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  27. Cotter, John, 2004. "International Equity Market Integration in a Small Open Economy: Ireland January 1990 – December 2000," MPRA Paper 3538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Becker, Kent G. & Finnerty, Joseph E. & Friedman, Joseph, 1995. "Economic news and equity market linkages between the U.S. and U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1191-1210, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2009. "Benchmark bonds interactions under regime shifts," Working Papers 103, Bank of Greece.
  3. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2008. "Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations," Working Papers 2072/8950, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  4. Lof, Matthijs, 2010. "Heterogeneity in Stock Pricing: A STAR Model with Multivariate Transition Functions," MPRA Paper 30520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2010. "Does the macroeconomy predict U.K. asset returns in a nonlinear fashion? comprehensive out-of-sample evidence," Working Papers 2010-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:315-346. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.