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Modelling real exchange rate effects on output performance in Latin America

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  • Pablo Mejia-Reyes
  • Denise Osborn
  • Marianne Sensier

Abstract

This article empirically analyses real per capita GDP growth for six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Mexico, Venezuela) in terms of real exchange rate depreciations, inflation and US interest rates, focussing on the role of the real exchange rate. We find evidence of nonlinearity in this relationship, which we capture through a smooth transition regression model. With the exception of Mexico, nonlinearity in economic growth is associated with changes in the real exchange rate, with depreciations leading to different relationships compared with appreciations. Regimes for Mexico are associated with the past growth rates, with effectively symmetric effects of real exchange rate changes. Although our results are in accord with other recent literature in that depreciations may have negative effects for growth, the asymmetries we uncover indicate that these effects depend on the conditioning state.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2010)
Issue (Month): 19 ()
Pages: 2491-2503

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:19:p:2491-2503

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Cited by:
  1. Röthig, Andreas & Chiarella, Carl, 2006. "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 36774, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
  2. Couharde, Cécile & Sallenave, Audrey, 2013. "How do currency misalignments’ threshold affect economic growth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 106-120.
  3. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Faridul, Islam & Naveed, Aamir, 2011. "Is devaluation contractionary? empirical evidence for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 32520, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2011.
  4. Foster, Vivien & Yepes, Tito, 2006. "Is cost recovery a feasible objective for water and electricity ? The Latin American experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3943, The World Bank.

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