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Investigating Nonlinear Speculation in Cattle, Corn and Hog Futures Markets Using Logistic Smooth Transition Regression Models

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Author Info
Andreas Röthig (Institute of Economics, Darmstadt University of Technology and Center for Empirical Marcroeconomics, University of Bielefeld)
Carl Chiarella () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)

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Abstract

This article explores nonlinearities in the response of speculators? trading activity to price changes in live cattle, corn, and lean hog futures markets. Analyzing weekly data from March 4, 1997 to December 27, 2005, we reject linearity in all of these markets. Using smooth transition regression models, we find a similar structure of nonlinearities with regard to the number of different regimes, the choice of the transition variable, and the value at which the transition occurs.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp172.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 172.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:172

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Related research
Keywords: futures marktes; speculation; nonlinear dynamics; smooth transition regression model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Terasvirta, Timo & Wolters, Jurgen, 1999. "Investigating Stability and Linearity of a German M1 Money Demand Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 511-25, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
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  2. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. P Mejía-Reyes & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Modelling Real Exchange Rate Effects on Output Performance in Latin America," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 35, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hall, Anthony D. & Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "A nonlinear time series model of El Niño," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 263, Stockholm School of Economics.
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