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Decomposing European bond and equity volatility

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Author Info
Christiansen, Charlotte () (Department of Accounting, Aarhus School of Business)

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Abstract

The paper investigates volatility spillover from US and aggregate European asset markets into European national asset markets. A main contribution is that bond and equity volatilities are analyzed simultaneously. A new model belonging to the 'volatilityspillover' family is suggested: The conditional variance of e.g. the unexpected German stock return is divided into separate effects from the contemporaneous idiosyncratic variance of US bonds, US stocks, European bonds, European stocks, German bonds, and German stocks. Significant volatility-spillover effects are found. The national bond (stock) volatilities are mainly influenced by bond (stock) effects. Global, regional, and local volatility effects are all important. The introduction of the euro is associated with a structural break.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies in its series Finance Research Group Working Papers with number F-2004-01.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 20 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2004-01

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Postal: The Aarhus School of Business, Fuglesangs Allé 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
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Related research
Keywords: European Asset Markets; GARCH; International Finance; Volatility Spillover;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Scruggs, John T. & Glabadanidis, Paskalis, 2003. "Risk Premia and the Dynamic Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 295-316, June. [Downloadable!]
  2. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 161-194, March. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2003. "Volatility-Spillover E ffects in European Bond Markets," Finance Working Papers 03-8, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, SŽbastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
  8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Philipp Hartmann & Angela Maddaloni & Simone Manganelli, 2003. "The Euro-area Financial System: Structure, Integration, and Policy Initiatives," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 180-213.
    Other versions:
  15. Patrick Burns & Robert Engle & Joseph Mezrich, 1998. "Correlations and Volatilities of Asynchronous Data," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-30r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  16. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Martens, Martin & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2001. "Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1805-1827, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2003. "Market Integration and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 9510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. L. Baele, 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/189, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
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  24. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2003. "Spillovers of stock return volatility to Asian equity markets from Japan and the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 383-399, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. C S Savva & D R Osborn & L Gill, 2005. "Spillovers and Correlations between US and Major European Stock Markets: The Role of the Euro," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0515, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christos Savva & Denise R Osborn & Len Gill, 2005. "Volatility, spillover Effects and Correlations in US and Major European Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 23, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2005. "Bond Market and Stock Market Integration in Europe," DNB Working Papers 060, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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