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Risk contagion among international stock markets

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Author Info

  • Asgharian, Hossein
  • Nossman, Marcus

Abstract

We develop a stochastic volatility model with jumps in returns and volatility to analyze the risk spillover from the U.S. market and the regional market to a number of European countries' equity markets. The key advantage of this approach compared to the earlier approaches is that it enables us to identify jumps and investigate spillover of extreme events across borders. We find that a large part of the jumps in the local markets are due to the U.S. market and the regional market. The U.S. contribution to the variances is in general below the contribution from the regional market. In general, we observe an increasing integration during the last two decades, which, to some extent, can be related to the advancement of the European Union. Furthermore, we show that the identification of the jumps can be used as a useful signal for portfolio reallocation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 22-38

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:1:p:22-38

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Spillover Jump Stochastic volatility Wavelet Markov Chain Monte Carlo Integration;

References

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  1. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
  2. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
  3. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2003. "Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W18, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation ," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  5. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
  6. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Decomposing European Bond and Equity Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2007-06, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  7. Wu, Liuren, 2003. " Jumps and Dynamic Asset Allocation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 207-43, May.
  8. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
  9. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, 02.
  10. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Hossein Asgharian & Christoffer Bengtsson, 2006. "Jump Spillover in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 167-203.
  12. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(02), pages 373-401, June.
  13. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Raman Uppal, 2004. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2809-2834, December.
  14. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, 06.
  15. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2013/3, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies, Lund University.
  2. Menelaos Karanasos & Alexandros Paraskevopoulos & Faek Menla Ali & Michail Karoglou & Stavroula Yfanti, 2014. "Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approach," Papers 1403.7179, arXiv.org.
  3. Brière, Marie & Chapelle, Ariane & Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1729-1744.
  4. Berger, Dave & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2012. "Market fragility and international market crashes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 565-580.
  5. Gębka, Bartosz & Karoglou, Michail, 2013. "Have the GIPSI settled down? Breaks and multivariate stochastic volatility models for, and not against, the European financial integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3639-3653.
  6. Daniel Kapp, 2012. "The optimal size of the European Stability Mechanism: A cost-benefit analysis," DNB Working Papers 349, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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