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Jump spillovers in energy futures markets: Implications for diversification benefits

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  • Liu, Qingfu
  • Tu, Anthony H.

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate jump spillover effects of five energy (petroleum) futures and their implications for diversification benefits. In order to identify the latent historical jumps for each of these energy futures, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate a jump-diffusion model for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities of pairs of energy futures and the probabilities that jumps in crude oil (and natural gas) cause jumps or usually large returns in other energy futures. In all cases, we find significant evidence that the diffusion-jump process is a better characterization for energy futures prices. We further find that jump spillovers significantly reduce the diversification benefits of an energy futures portfolio in a tranquil (rather than crisis) period.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Qingfu & Tu, Anthony H., 2012. "Jump spillovers in energy futures markets: Implications for diversification benefits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1447-1464.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:5:p:1447-1464
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.06.015
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bouri, Elie & Lei, Xiaojie & Jalkh, Naji & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "Spillovers in higher moments and jumps across US stock and strategic commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Li, Xiao-Ping & Zhou, Chun-Yang & Wu, Chong-Feng, 2017. "Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 656-667.
    4. Besma Hkiri & Juncal Cunado & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Time-varying relationship between conventional and unconventional monetary policies and risk aversion: international evidence from time- and frequency-domains," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2963-2983, December.
    5. Yuan, Ying & Du, Xinyu, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers across global stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from jumps and higher moments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 628(C).
    6. Lu Wang & Ferhana Ahmad & Gong-li Luo & Muhammad Umar & Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2022. "Portfolio optimization of financial commodities with energy futures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 401-439, June.
    7. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2022. "Spillovers in Higher-Order Moments of Crude Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 398-406.
    8. Kam Fong Chan & Philip Gray, 2017. "Do Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements Influence Energy Price Jumps?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 71-89, January.
    9. Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad Ali Nasir & Subhan Ullah, 2022. "Financial modelling, risk management of energy instruments and the role of cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 47-75, June.
    10. Zhang, Bing & Wang, Peijie, 2014. "Return and volatility spillovers between china and world oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 413-420.
    11. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "Characteristics of petroleum product prices: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Gabauer, David, 2023. "Contemporaneous and lagged R2 decomposed connectedness approach: New evidence from the energy futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian factor; Energy futures; Jump-diffusion model; MCMC; Spillover; Stochastic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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