Dynamics of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach
AbstractWe use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to investigate the linkage between the volatility of ethanol security prices and the uncertainty surrounding the profitability of ethanol production and the price variations of non-ethanol energy securities. The joint evolution of return and volatility is modeled as a stochastic process that incorporates jumps in both return and volatility. While a strong and significant correlation is found between the volatility of ethanol securities and profit uncertainty from June 2005 to July 2008, the dynamic pattern of ethanol stock volatility is strikingly similar to that of the S&P 500 energy sector index in the more recent period. Our evidence lends support to the findings in the literature on rational learning from uncertainty in determining the equity price and volatility during the adoption and development of a technological innovation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
Volume (Year): 93 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Du, Xiaodong & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Cindy, 2010. "Dynamics of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach," Staff General Research Papers 31533, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Xiaodong Du & Dermot J. Hayes & Cindy L. Yu, 2009. "Dynamics of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 09-wp498, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Khalfaoui Rabeh, K & Boutahar Mohamed, B, 2011. "A time-scale analysis of systematic risk: wavelet-based approach," MPRA Paper 31938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.