A Bayesian Analysis of Return Dynamics with Lévy Jumps
AbstractWe have developed Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for inferences of continuous-time models with stochastic volatility and infinite-activity Lévy jumps using discretely sampled data. Simulation studies show that (i) our methods provide accurate joint identification of diffusion, stochastic volatility, and Lévy jumps, and (ii) the affine jump-diffusion (AJD) models fail to adequately approximate the behavior of infinite-activity jumps. In particular, the AJD models fail to capture the "infinitely many" small Lévy jumps, which are too big for Brownian motion to model and too small for compound Poisson process to capture. Empirical studies show that infinite-activity Lévy jumps are essential for modeling the S&P 500 index returns. The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: email@example.com, Oxford University Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.
Volume (Year): 21 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Journals Department, 2001 Evans Road, Cary, NC 27513 USA.
Web page: http://www.rfs.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Kaeck, Andreas, 2013. "Asymmetry in the jump-size distribution of the S&P 500: Evidence from equity and option markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1872-1888.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Which continuous-time model is most appropriate for exchange rates?," Working Papers 2013-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Ornthanalai, Chayawat, 2014. "Lévy jump risk: Evidence from options and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-90.
- Kleppe, Tore Selland & Skaug, Hans Julius, 2012. "Fitting general stochastic volatility models using Laplace accelerated sequential importance sampling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3105-3119.
- Fulop, Andras & Li, Junye, 2013. "Efficient learning via simulation: A marginalized resample-move approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 146-161.
- Xiaodong Du & Cindy L. Yu & Dermot J. Hayes, 2009.
"Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis,"
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications
09-wp491, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
- Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
- Xiaodong Du & Cindy L. Yu & Dermot J. Hayes, 2009. "Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 09-wp491, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2009. "Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49276, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Chen, Bin & Song, Zhaogang, 2013. "Testing whether the underlying continuous-time process follows a diffusion: An infinitesimal operator-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 83-107.
- Pawel J. Szerszen, 2009. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with Lévy jumps: application to risk analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fabozzi, Frank J. & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Radu S., 2014. "Extracting market information from equity options with exponential Lévy processes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 125-141.
- Kaeck, Andreas & Alexander, Carol, 2012. "Volatility dynamics for the S&P 500: Further evidence from non-affine, multi-factor jump diffusions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3110-3121.
- Lee, Suzanne S. & Mykland, Per A., 2012. "Jumps in equilibrium prices and market microstructure noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 396-406.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.