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Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variationÂ

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  • Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen
  • Neil Shephard

Abstract

In this paper we provide an asymptotic distribution theory for some non-parametric tests of the hypothesis that asset prices have continuous sample paths. We study the behaviour of the tests using simulated data and see that certain versions of the tests have good finite sample behaviour. We also apply the tests to exchange rate data and show that the null of a continuous sample path is frequently rejected. Most of the jumps the statistics identify are associated with governmental macroeconomic announcements.Â

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2004fe01.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2004fe01

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Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk
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  1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Realised power variation and stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W18, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Realised Covariation: High Frequency Covariance, Regression and Correlation in Financial Economics," Economics Papers 2002-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 18 Mar 2002.
  3. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Chamberlain, Gary, 1988. "Asset Pricing in Multiperiod Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1283-1300, November.
  5. René Garcia & Eric Ghysels & Éric Renault, 2004. "The Econometrics of Option Pricing," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-04, CIRANO.
  6. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers 02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  7. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
  8. Jeannette H.C. Woerner, 2003. "Estimation of Integrated Volatility in Stochastic Volatility Models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003mf05, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  9. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps," Economics Papers 2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  10. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  11. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Power Variation and Time Change," Economics Papers 2002-W24, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  12. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  13. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001.
  14. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004. "A feasible central limit theory for realised volatility under leverage," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  15. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2001. "Estimating stochastic volatility diffusion using conditional moments of integrated volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  17. Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-58, CIRANO.
  18. Bandi, Federico M. & Nguyen, Thong H., 2003. "On the functional estimation of jump-diffusion models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 293-328.
  19. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003.
  20. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
  21. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
  22. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
  23. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Svend Erik Graversen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Power variation & stochastic volatility: a review and some new results," Economics Papers 2003-W19, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  24. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "How accurate is the asymptotic approximation to the distribution of realised volatility?," Economics Papers 2001-W16, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  25. Back, Kerry, 1991. "Asset pricing for general processes," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 371-395.
  26. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2004. "Disentangling diffusion from jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 487-528, December.
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