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Realized jumps on financial markets and predicting credit spreads

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  • Tauchen, George
  • Zhou, Hao

Abstract

This paper extends the jump detection method based on bipower variation to identify realized jumps on financial markets and to estimate parametrically the jump intensity, mean, and variance. Finite sample evidence suggests that the jump parameters can be accurately estimated and that the statistical inferences are reliable under the assumption that jumps are rare and large. Applications to equity market, treasury bond, and exchange rate data reveal important differences in jump frequencies and volatilities across asset classes over time. For investment grade bond spread indices, the estimated jump volatility has more forecasting power than interest rate factors and volatility factors including option-implied volatility, with control for systematic risk factors. The jump volatility risk factor seems to capture the low frequency movements in credit spreads and comoves countercyclically with the price-dividend ratio and corporate default rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 160 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 102-118

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:160:y:2011:i:1:p:102-118

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Jump-diffusion process Realized variance bipower variation Realized jumps Jump volatility Credit risk premium;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Catherine S. Forbes & Gael M. Martin, 2014. "Inference on Self-Exciting Jumps in Prices and Volatility using High Frequency Measures," Papers 1401.3911, arXiv.org.
  2. Acharya, Viral V & DeMarzo, Peter & Kremer, Ilan, 2008. "Endogenous Information Flows and the Clustering of Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 6985, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Benoît Sévi & César Baena, 2012. "A reassessment of the risk-return tradeoff at the daily horizon," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 190-203.
  4. Garcia, René & Renault, Eric & Veredas, David, 2011. "Estimation of stable distributions by indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 325-337, April.
  5. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Empirical evidence on jumps in the term structure of the US Treasury Market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 430-445, June.
  6. Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Martin, Gael M. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Grose, Simone D., 2012. "Probabilistic forecasts of volatility and its risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 217-236.
  7. Evans, Kevin P., 2011. "Intraday jumps and US macroeconomic news announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2511-2527, October.
  8. Éric Jacquier & Cédric Okou, 2013. "Disentangling Continuous Volatility from Jumps in Long-Run Risk-Return Relationships," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-14, CIRANO.
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  10. Bregantini, Daniele, 2013. "Moment-based estimation of stochastic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4755-4764.
  11. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Villupuram, Sriram, 2014. "Currency jumps, cojumps and the role of macro news," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 42-62.
  12. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
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  14. Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Weller, Paul A. & Dunham, Lee M., 2009. "Price trends and patterns in technical analysis: A theoretical and empirical examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1089-1100, June.
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  16. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Data-based ranking of realised volatility estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 284-303, April.
  17. Sévi, Benoît, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 189-197.

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