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Variation, jumps, market frictions and high frequency data in financial econometrics

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Author Info
Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen () (University of Aarhus)
Neil Shephard () (Nuffield College, Oxford University)

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Abstract

We will review the econometrics of non-parametric estimation of the components of the variation of asset prices. This very active literature has been stimulated by the recent advent of complete records of transaction prices, quote data and order books. In our view the interaction of the new data sources with new econometric methodology is leading to a paradigm shift in one of the most important areas in econometrics: volatility measurement, modelling and forecasting. We will describe this new paradigm which draws together econometrics with arbitrage free financial economics theory. Perhaps the two most influential papers in this area have been Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys(2001) and Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard(2002), but many other papers have made important contributions. This work is likely to have deep impacts on the econometrics of asset allocation and risk management. One of our observations will be that inferences based on these methods, computed from observed market prices and so under the physical measure, are also valid as inferences under all equivalent measures. This puts this subject also at the heart of the econometrics of derivative pricing. One of the most challenging problems in this context is dealing with various forms of market frictions, which obscure the efficient price from the econometrician. Here we will characterise four types of statistical models of frictions and discuss how econometricians have been attempting to overcome them.

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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2005-W16.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 14 Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0516

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  2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Regular and Modified Kernel-Based Estimators of Integrated Variance: The Case with Independent Noise," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe20, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2007. "Information Loss in Volatility Measurement with Flat Price Trading," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1598, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gael M. Martin & Andrew Reidy & Jill Wright, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of Market Microstructure Noise and Random Jumps on the Relative Forecasting Performance of Option-Implied and Returns-Based Volatility," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeremy Large, 2005. "Estimating quadratic variation when quoted prices jump by a constant increment," Economics Papers 2005-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Sven Erik Graversen & Jean Jacod & Neil Shephard, 2005. "Limit theorems for bipower variation in financial econometrics," Economics Papers 2005-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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