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Correcting the Errors : A Note on Volatility Forecast Evaluation Based on High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Andersen, T.G.
Bollerslev, T.
Meddahi, N.
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This note develops general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit the recent asymptotic distributional results in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2002a), are both easy to implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. On properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), the adjustments result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return-volatility predictability.
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Paper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number
21-2002.
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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 2002Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:21-2002Contact details of provider: Postal: C.P. 6128, Succ. centre-ville, Montr�al (PQ) H3C 3J7 Phone: (514) 343-6557 Fax: (514) 343-5831 Email: Web page: http://www.cireq.umontreal.ca More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Measurement errors model-free adjustment procedures integrated volatility realized volatility high-frequency data time series forecasting Mincer-Zarnowitz regressions Other versions of this item:
Paper ANDERSEN, Torben G. & BOLLERSLEV, Tim & MEDDAHI, Nour, 2002.
"Correcting the Errors : A Note on Volatility Forecast Evaluation Based on High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities ,"
Cahiers de recherche
2002-21, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
[Downloadable!] Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2002.
"Correcting the Errors: A Note on Volatility Forecast Evaluation Based on High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities ,"
CIRANO Working Papers
2002s-91, CIRANO.
[Downloadable!] References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2002.
"Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement ,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001.
"Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics ,"
Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B ,
Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002.
"Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 457-477.
[Downloadable!]
Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni & Jesper Lund, 2002.
"An Empirical Investigation of Continuous-Time Equity Return Models ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1239-1284, 06.
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Other versions: Neil Shephard, 2005.
"Stochastic Volatility ,"
Economics Papers
2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2002.
"Analytic Evaluation of Volatility Forecasts ,"
CIRANO Working Papers
2002s-90, CIRANO.
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Other versions: Bollerslev, Tim & Zhou, Hao, 2002.
"Estimating stochastic volatility diffusion using conditional moments of integrated volatility ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 33-65, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Nour Meddahi, 2001.
"An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling ,"
CIRANO Working Papers
2001s-70, CIRANO.
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Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999.
"The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility ,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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"Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models ,"
Review of Economic Studies ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
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Meddahi, N., 2001.
"An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling ,"
Cahiers de recherche
2001-29, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003.
"Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001.
"Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility ,"
NBER Working Papers
8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001.
"Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility ,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
01-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
[Downloadable!] Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002.
"Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility ,"
Working Papers
02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Nour Meddahi, 2002.
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Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
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Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2000.
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CIRANO Working Papers
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Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2002.
"Rolling-Sample Volatility Estimators: Some New Theoretical, Simulation, and Empirical Results ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 363-76, July.
Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001.
"How accurate is the asymptotic approximation to the distribution of realised volatility? ,"
Economics Papers
2001-W16, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
[Downloadable!]
Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998.
"Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
MEDDAHI, Nour, 2001.
"An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling ,"
Cahiers de recherche
2001-29, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
[Downloadable!]
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004.
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Other versions: Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold,, 2003.
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