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A Central Limit Theorem for Realised Power and Bipower Variations of Continuous Semimartingales

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Author Info
Ole Barndorff-Nielsen (University of Aarhus)
Svend Erik Graversen (University of Aarhus)
Jean Jacod (Universtie P. et M. Curie)
Mark Podolskij (Ruhr University of Bochum)
Neil Shephard () (Nuffield College, University of Oxford, UK)

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Abstract

Consider a semimartingale of the form Y_{t}=Y_0+\int _0^{t}a_{s}ds+\int _0^{t}_{s-} dW_{s}, where a is a locally bounded predictable process and (the "volatility") is an adapted right--continuous process with left limits and W is a Brownian motion. We define the realised bipower variation process V(Y;r,s)_{t}^n=n^{((r+s)/2)-1} \sum_{i=1}^{[nt]}|Y_{(i/n)}-Y_{((i-1)/n)}|^{r}|Y_{((i+1)/n)}-Y_{(i/n)}|^{s}, where r and s are nonnegative reals with r+s>0. We prove that V(Y;r,s)_{t}n converges locally uniformly in time, in probability, to a limiting process V(Y;r,s)_{t} (the "bipower variation process"). If further is a possibly discontinuous semimartingale driven by a Brownian motion which may be correlated with W and by a Poisson random measure, we prove a central limit theorem, in the sense that \sqrt(n) (V(Y;r,s)^n-V(Y;r,s)) converges in law to a process which is the stochastic integral with respect to some other Brownian motion W', which is independent of the driving terms of Y and \sigma. We also provide a multivariate version of these results.

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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2004-W29.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0429

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Realised Covariation: High Frequency Covariance, Regression and Correlation in Financial Economics," Economics Papers 2002-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 18 Mar 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation," Economics Papers 2003-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001. [Downloadable!]
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