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Optimal combinations of realised volatility estimators

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Author Info

  • Patton, Andrew J.
  • Sheppard, Kevin

Abstract

Recent advances in financial econometrics have led to the development of new estimators of asset price variability using frequently-sampled price data, known as "realised volatility estimators" or simply "realised measures". These estimators rely on a variety of different assumptions and take many different functional forms. Motivated by the empirical success of combination forecasts, this paper presents a novel approach for combining individual realised measures to form new estimators of price variability. In an application to high frequency IBM price data over the period 1996-2008, we consider 32 different realised measures from 8 distinct classes of estimators. We find that a simple equally-weighted average of these estimators cannot generally be out-performed, in terms of accuracy, by any individual estimator. Moreover, we find that none of the individual estimators encompasses the information in all other estimators, providing further support for the use of combination realised measures.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 218-238

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:2:p:218-238

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords: Realised variance Volatility forecasting Forecast comparison Forecast combination;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO 2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, February.
  2. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
  3. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Data-based ranking of realised volatility estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 284-303, April.
  4. Venter, J.H. & de Jongh, P.J., 2014. "Extended stochastic volatility models incorporating realised measures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 687-707.
  5. Kevin Sheppard & Lily Liu & Andrew J. Patton, 2013. "Does Anything Beat 5-Minute RV? A Comparison of Realized Measures Across Multiple Asset Classes," Economics Series Working Papers 645, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Andrawis, Robert R. & Atiya, Amir F. & El-Shishiny, Hisham, 2011. "Combination of long term and short term forecasts, with application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 870-886, July.
  7. Matteo Bonato & Massimiliano Caporin & Angelo Ranaldo, 2012. "Risk spillovers in international equity portfolios," Working Papers 2012-03, Swiss National Bank.
  8. Thomas Lux & Leonardo Morales-Arias & Cristina Sattarhoff, 2011. "A Markov-switching Multifractal Approach to Forecasting Realized Volatility," Kiel Working Papers 1737, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Olmo, Jose, 2013. "Optimally harnessing inter-day and intra-day information for daily value-at-risk prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-42.
  10. Boudt, Kris & Cornelissen, Jonathan & Croux, Christophe, 2012. "Jump robust daily covariance estimation by disentangling variance and correlation components," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 2993-3005.
  11. Alexeev, Vitali & Dungey, Mardi, 2013. "Equity portfolio diversification with high frequency data," Working Papers 2013-18, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 01 Nov 2013.

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