IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qut/auncer/2007-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Author

Listed:
  • Ralf Becker
  • Adam Clements

Abstract

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention. Many articles have considered the relative performance of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts. While many studies have found that implied volatility is the preferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved. One issue being the relative merit of combination forecasts. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that combination forecasts are the dominant approach, indicating that the VIX cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Becker & Adam Clements, 2007. "Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?," NCER Working Paper Series 17, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2007-92
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WpNo17June07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    2. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1995. "Predicting stock market volatility: A new measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-302, May.
    3. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2005. "Correcting the Errors: Volatility Forecast Evaluation Using High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 279-296, January.
    6. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
    7. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. "Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-528, June.
    8. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423.
    9. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2005. "Model confidence sets for forecasting models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2007. "Does implied volatility provide any information beyond that captured in model-based volatility forecasts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2535-2549, August.
    11. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    12. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    13. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "(Understanding, Optimizing, Using and Forecasting) Realized Volatility and Correlation," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-061, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    14. Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 256-271, August.
    15. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003. "Choosing the Best Volatility Models: The Model Confidence Set Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 839-861, December.
    16. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    17. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    18. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
    19. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
    20. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
    21. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
    22. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    23. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    24. Scott I. White & Adam E. Clements & Stan Hurn, 2004. "Discretised Non-Linear Filtering for Dynamic Latent Variable Models: with Application to Stochastic Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 46, Econometric Society.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2007. "Does implied volatility provide any information beyond that captured in model-based volatility forecasts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2535-2549, August.
    2. Bali, Turan G. & Weinbaum, David, 2007. "A conditional extreme value volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 361-397, February.
    3. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2006. "On the informational efficiency of S&P500 implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 139-153, August.
    4. Adam Clements & Ralf Becker, 2009. "A nonparametric approach to forecasting realized volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 43, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    6. Becker Ralf & Clements Adam E & Hurn Stan, 2011. "Semi-Parametric Forecasting of Realized Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, May.
    7. Ralf Becker & Adam Clements & Christopher Coleman-Fenn, 2009. "Forecast performance of implied volatility and the impact of the volatility risk premium," NCER Working Paper Series 45, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    8. Athanasia Gavala & Nikolay Gospodinov & Deming Jiang, 2006. "Forecasting volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 381-400.
    9. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Hassani, Hossein, 2018. "Forecasting global stock market implied volatility indices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 111-129.
    10. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
    11. Benavides, Guillermo & Capistrán, Carlos, 2012. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility: The superior performance of conditional combinations of time series and option implied forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 627-639.
    12. Busch, Thomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2011. "The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 48-57, January.
    13. Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Forecasting the density of oil futures," Working Papers 2014-601, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    14. Taylor, Stephen J. & Yadav, Pradeep K. & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2010. "The information content of implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations: Evidence from options written on individual stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 871-881, April.
    15. Oikonomou, Ioannis & Stancu, Andrei & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "The information content of short-term options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    16. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    17. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
    18. Taylor, Stephen J. & Yadav, Pradeep K. & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2009. "The information content of implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations: Evidence from options written on individual stocks," CFR Working Papers 09-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    19. Neely, Christopher J., 2009. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
    20. Degiannakis, Stavros, 2018. "Multiple days ahead realized volatility forecasting: Single, combined and average forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-61.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Implied volatility; volatility forecasts; volatility models; realized volatility; combination forecasts.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2007-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: School of Economics and Finance (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ncerrau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.