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Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

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  • Becker, Ralf
  • Clements, Adam E.

Abstract

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E., 2008. "Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 122-133.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:1:p:122-133
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    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts & Francesco Violante, 2012. "On the forecasting accuracy of multivariate GARCH models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 934-955, September.
    2. Ke Yang & Langnan Chen & Fengping Tian, 2015. "Realized Volatility Forecast of Stock Index Under Structural Breaks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 57-82, January.
    3. Benavides, Guillermo & Capistrán, Carlos, 2012. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility: The superior performance of conditional combinations of time series and option implied forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 627-639.
    4. Adam E Clements & Mark Doolan & Stan Hurn & Ralf Becker, 2012. "Selecting forecasting models for portfolio allocation," NCER Working Paper Series 85, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    5. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars, 2015. "Option pricing with asymmetric heteroskedastic normal mixture models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 635-650.
    6. Markose, Sheri M & Peng, Yue & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2012. "Forecasting Extreme Volatility of FTSE-100 With Model Free VFTSE, Carr-Wu and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Option Implied Volatility Indices," Economics Discussion Papers 3713, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    7. Helmut Lütkepohl & Thore Schlaak, 2017. "Choosing between Different Time-Varying Volatility Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1672, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
    9. Rohini Grover & Susan Thomas, 2012. "Liquidity Considerations in Estimating Implied Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 714-741, August.
    10. Douglas G. Santos & Flavio A. Ziegelmann, 2014. "Volatility Forecasting via MIDAS, HAR and their Combination: An Empirical Comparative Study for IBOVESPA," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 284-299, July.
    11. Le, Van & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2010. "The role of trading volume in volatility forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 533-555, December.
    12. Vasyl Golosnoy & Yarema Okhrin, 2015. "Using information quality for volatility model combinations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1055-1073, June.
    13. Patton, Andrew J. & Sheppard, Kevin, 2009. "Optimal combinations of realised volatility estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 218-238.
    14. R. Khalfaoui & M. Boutahar, 2012. "Portfolio Risk Evaluation: An Approach Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlations Models and Wavelet Multi-Resolution Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00793068, HAL.
    15. repec:esx:essedp:713 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Clements, A. & Silvennoinen, A., 2013. "Volatility timing: How best to forecast portfolio exposures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 108-115.
    17. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:276-291 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Conrad, Christian, 2017. "When does information on forecast variance improve the performance of a combined forecast?," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168200, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. repec:kap:openec:v:29:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11079-018-9481-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Adam Clements & Ralf Becker, 2009. "A nonparametric approach to forecasting realized volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 43, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    21. Yanhui Chen & Kin Lai, 2013. "Examination on the Relationship Between VHSI, HSI and Future Realized Volatility With Kalman Filter," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(2), pages 200-216, December.
    22. Markopoulou, Chryssa & Skintzi, Vasiliki & Refenes, Apostolos, 2016. "On the predictability of model-free implied correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 527-547.
    23. Becker Ralf & Clements Adam E & Hurn Stan, 2011. "Semi-Parametric Forecasting of Realized Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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