Forecast performance of implied volatility and the impact of the volatility risk premium
Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performance of econometric models based on time-series data and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the preferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved. Implied volatilities are risk-neutral forecasts of spot volatility, whereas time-series models are estimated on risk-adjusted or real world data of the underlying. Recently, an intuitive method has been proposed to adjust these risk-neutral forecasts into their risk-adjusted equivalents, possibly improving on their forecast accuracy. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether these risk-adjusted forecasts are statistically superior to the unadjusted forecasts, as well as a wide range of model based forecasts. It is found that an unadjusted risk-neutral implied volatility is an inferior forecast. However, after adjusting for the risk premia it is of equal predictive accuracy relative to a number of model based forecasts.
|Date of creation:||21 Jul 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 07 3138 5066|
Fax: 07 3138 1500
Web page: http://www.ncer.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Patton, 2006.
"Volatility Forecast Comparison using Imperfect Volatility Proxies,"
Research Paper Series
175, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003.
"Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility,"
Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
- Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers 02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 256-271, August.
- Scott I. White & Adam E. Clements & Stan Hurn, 2004. "Discretised Non-Linear Filtering for Dynamic Latent Variable Models: with Application to Stochastic Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 46, Econometric Society.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003.
"Choosing the Best Volatility Models: The Model Confidence Set Approach,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 839-861, December.
- Peter Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003. "Choosing the Best Volatility Models:The Model Confidence Set Approach," Working Papers 2003-05, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003. "Choosing the best volatility models: the model confidence set approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June.
- Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2009_58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (School of Economics and Finance)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask School of Economics and Finance to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.