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The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance

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Author Info
Xin Huang
George Tauchen
Abstract

We examine tests for jumps based on recent asymptotic results; we interpret the tests as Hausman-type tests. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the daily ratio z-statistic has appropriate size, good power, and good jump detection capabilities revealed by the confusion matrix comprised of jump classification probabilities. We identify a pitfall in applying the asymptotic approximation over an entire sample. Theoretical and Monte Carlo analysis indicates that microstructure noise biases the tests against detecting jumps, and that a simple lagging strategy corrects the bias. Empirical work documents evidence for jumps that account for 7% of stock market price variance. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbi025
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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 3 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 456-499
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Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:3:y:2005:i:4:p:456-499

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  1. Almut Elisabeth Dorothea Veraart, 2007. "Feasible inference for realised variance in the presence of jumps," OFRC Working Papers Series 2007fe02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2008. "Forecasting Realized Volatility: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers tecipa-313, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2007. "Are there Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Working Papers tecipa-304, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Xin Huang, 2007. "A Reduced Form Framework for Modeling Volatility of Speculative Prices based on Realized Variation Measures," CREATES Research Papers 2007-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tim Bollerslev & Michael Gibson & Hao Zhou, 2007. "Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option-Implied and Realized Volatilities," CREATES Research Papers 2007-16, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ilze Kalnina & Oliver Linton, 2007. "Inference about Realized Volatility using Infill Subsampling," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2007/523, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mark Podolskij & Mathias Vetter, 2007. "Estimation of Volatility Functionals in the Simultaneous Presence of Microstructure Noise and Jumps," CREATES Research Papers 2007-27, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Per Houmann Frederiksen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2007-21, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Charles S. Bos, 2008. "Model-based Estimation of High Frequency Jump Diffusions with Microstructure Noise and Stochastic Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-011/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Forecasting Realized Volatility by Decomposition," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/20, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  12. Thomas Busch & Thomas Busch & Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-09, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  13. Almut Veraart, 2008. "Inference for the jump part of quadratic variation of Itô semimartingales," CREATES Research Papers 2008-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  14. George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2006. "Realized jumps on financial markets and predicting credit spreads," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  15. Tim Bollerslev & Uta Kretschmer & Christian Pigorsch & George Tauchen, 2007. "A Discrete-Time Model for Daily S&P500 Returns and Realized Variations: Jumps and Leverage Effects," CREATES Research Papers 2007-22, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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