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Volatility forecasting: the jumps do matter

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  • Fulvio Corsi

    ()

  • Davide Pirino

    ()

  • Roberto Renò

    ()

Abstract

This study reconsiders the role of jumps for volatility forecasting by showing that jumps have positive and mostly significant impact on future volatility. This result becomes apparent once volatility is correctly separated into its continuous and discontinuous component. To this purpose, we introduce the concept of threshold multipower variation (TMPV), which is based on the joint use of bipower variation and threshold estimation. With respect to alternative methods, our TMPV estimator provides less biased and robust estimates of the continuous quadratic variation and jumps. This technique also provides a new test for jump detection which has substantially more power than traditional tests. We use this separation to forecast volatility by employing an heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model which is suitable to parsimoniously model long memory in realized volatility time series. Empirical analysis shows that the proposed techniques improve significantly the accuracy of volatility forecasts for the S&P500 index, single stocks and US bond yields, especially in periods following the occurrence of a jump

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Siena in its series Department of Economics University of Siena with number 534.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:534

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Keywords: volatility forecasting; jumps; bipower variation; threshold estimation; stock; bond;

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Cited by:
  1. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2013. "Nonparametric realized volatility estimation in the international equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 34-45.
  2. Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. Médecin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  3. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
  4. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2010. "The properties of realized correlation: Evidence from the French, German and Greek equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 273-290, August.
  5. Thierry Ane & Carole Metais, 2010. "Jump Distribution Characteristics: Evidence from European Stock Markets," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, April.
  6. Alexander Alvarez & Fabien Panloup & Monique Pontier & Nicolas Savy, 2012. "Estimation of the instantaneous volatility," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 27-59, April.
  7. Yin Liao & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "Do Jumps Matter? Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility Allowing for Common Jumps," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2010-520, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  8. Rossi, Eduardo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2013. "Long memory and tail dependence in trading volume and volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 94-112.

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