This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Valuing Volatility Spillovers

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
George Milunovich () (Department of Economics, Macquarie University)
Susan Thorp (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We measure the reduction in realized portfolio risk that can be achieved by allowing for volatility spillover in forecasts of equity covariance. The conditional second moment matrix of equity returns for pairs of major European equity markets is estimated via two asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation models (A-DCC): the unrestricted model includes volatility spillover e¤ects and the restricted model does not. Data are daily returns on the London, Frankfurt and Paris equity market price indices synchronized at London 16:00 time. Covariance forecasts from the restricted and unrestricted models are combined with assumed expected returns to compute e¢ cient three-asset portfolios (two equity indices and the risk-free asset). The impact of expected return choice on out-of-sample portfolio e¢ ciency is minimized via the polar co-ordinates method of Engel and Colacito (2004), which allows expected equity returns to span all relatives. Out-of-sample realized portfolio returns and variances from e¢ cient portfolios are computed and tested. Allowing for volatility spillover e¤ects produces small, statistically signi.cant reductions in portfolio risk. Portfolio standard deviations for the unrestricted model are at most one per cent smaller than standard deviations for restricted models. Significant risk reductions persist across daily, weekly, and monthly rebalancing horizons. Tests for second degree stochastic dominance indicate that realized returns from portfolios based on the volatility spillover model would be preferred by risk averse agents.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/research/2005/valuingvolatilityspillover.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First Version, 2005
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Macquarie University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers with number 0506.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 33 pages.
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mac:wpaper:0506

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Sydney NSW 2109
Web page: http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Helen Boneham).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Garry F. Barrett & Stephen G. Donald, 2003. "Consistent Tests for Stochastic Dominance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 71-104, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2003. "Volatility-Spillover E ffects in European Bond Markets," Finance Working Papers 03-8, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 279-292, September. [Downloadable!]
  4. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-42, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Engle, Robert & Colacito, Riccardo, 2006. "Testing and Valuing Dynamic Correlations for Asset Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 238-253, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2002. "Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance: A Subsampling Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1356, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Mar 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Conrad, Jennifer & Gultekin, Mustafa N & Kaul, Gautam, 1991. "Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 597-622. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Apergis, Nicholas & Rezitis, Anthony, 2001. "Asymmetric Cross-Market Volatility Spillovers: Evidence from Daily Data on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(0), pages 81-96, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 1992. "Stock returns and volatility: An empirical study of the UK stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Volatility and shocks spillover before and after EMU in European stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 323-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Angel Pardo & Hipòlit Torró, 2007. "Trading with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(9-10), pages 1548-1568. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-15, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Vance Martin & G.C. Lim & Esfandiar Maasoumi, 2004. "Discounting The Equity Premium Puzzle," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 331, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  19. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Martens, Martin & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2001. "Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1805-1827, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. L. Baele, 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/189, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2003. "Spillovers of stock return volatility to Asian equity markets from Japan and the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 383-399, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
  27. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-641, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Susan Thorp & George Milunovich, 2005. "Asymmetric Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Research Paper Series 160, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil Futures Returns and Oil Company Stocks Return," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-639, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Citation analysis on IDEAS includes online papers that are freely accessible and whose text could be automatically analyzed, currently about 210000 papers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-19.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.