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Shock and Volatility Transmission in the Futures and Spot Markets: Evidence from Turkish Markets

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  • Ekin Tokat
  • Hakkı Arda Tokat
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the volatility transmission mechanism between the futures and corresponding underlying asset spot markets, focusing on Turkish currency and stock index futures traded on the lately established Turkish Derivatives Exchange (TURKDEX). Employing multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity modeling, which allows for potential spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for the market returns, the paper investigates the volatility interactions among each of the three futures-spot market systems. For all market systems under study, the volatility spillovers are found to be important and bidirectional. For the stock index market system, in line with the previous literature, volatility shows asymmetric behavior and strong asymmetric shock transmission. The main implication is that investors need to account for volatility spillovers and asymmetries among the futures and the spot markets to correctly build hedging strategies.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

    Volume (Year): 46 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 (January)
    Pages: 92-104

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    Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:46:y:2010:i:4:p:92-104

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    Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

    Related research

    Keywords: asymmetric volatility; futures market; multivariate GARCH; Turkish Derivatives Exchange; volatility transmission;

    References

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    1. Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2006. "Valuing volatility spillovers," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
    3. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 187, Royal Economic Society.
    6. Kasman, Adnan & Kasman, Saadet, 2008. "The impact of futures trading on volatility of the underlying asset in the Turkish stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2837-2845.
    7. Hisashi Tanizaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2009. "Volatility transmission between Japan, UK and USA in daily stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 27-54, February.
    8. Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2007. "Measuring equity market integration using uncorrelated information flows: Tokyo, London and New York," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 275-289, October.
    9. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Malliaris, A G, 1998. " Volume and Volatility in Foreign Currency Futures Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 285-302, May.
    10. Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
    11. Savva, Christos S., 2009. "International stock markets interactions and conditional correlations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 645-661, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2014. "Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 247-253.

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