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Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

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Author Info
Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)
Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
Roengchai Tansuchat (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University and Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University)

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Abstract

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC, VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecasted conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-641.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf641

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  1. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002. "A Test for Volatility Spillovers," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Lin, Sharon Xiaowen & Tamvakis, Michael N., 2001. "Spillover effects in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 43-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq & Ozfidan, Ozkan, 2002. "Volatility transmission in the oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 525-538, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hammoudeh, S.M. & Yuan, Y. & McAleer, M.J., 2008. "Shock and volatility spillovers among equity sectors of the Gulf Arab stock markets," Econometric Institute Report EI 2008-29 Revision_Date:, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Michael McAleer & Suhejla Hoti & Felix Chan, 2009. "Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Conditional Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 422-440. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Hoti, Suhejla & Lieberman, Offer, 2008. "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Correlation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(06), pages 1554-1583, December. [Downloadable!]
  9. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Do We Really Need Both BEKK and DCC? A Tale of Two Covariance Models," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0904, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
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  10. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February. [Downloadable!]
  11. Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2006. "Valuing volatility spillovers," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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