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Modelling the volatility transmission and conditional correlations between A and B shares in forecasting value-at-risk

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  • da Veiga, Bernardo
  • Chan, Felix
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the Chinese B share market reform on the conditional correlation and information transmission between A and B Shares issued in the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges. Daily returns for the Shanghai A share index (SHA), Shanghai B share index (SHB), Shenzen A share index (SZA) and Shenzen B share index (SZB) are used for the period 6 October 1992 to 8 February 2005. The impact of the reform on the volatility spillovers and volatility transmission were found to be significant. The results also suggest that all pairs of conditional correlations increase dramatically over the period analysed, but such increases began well before the reforms to the B share market. The importance of accommodating such an increase in conditional correlations and changes in the information transmission mechanism when estimating value-at-risk (VaR) thresholds is analysed. The results suggest that accommodating the B share market reform may not be particularly important in empirical analyses of volatility transmission.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM).

Volume (Year): 78 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 155-171

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Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:78:y:2008:i:2:p:155-171

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Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/

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Keywords: China A and B shares; Value-at-risk thresholds; Basel accord penalties; Multivariate conditional volatility; Conditional correlations;

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References

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  1. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model," ISER Discussion Paper 0549, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  2. Weiss, Andrew A., 1986. "Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 107-131, April.
  3. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  4. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Necessary and Sufficient Moment Conditions for the GARCH(r,s) and Asymmetric Power GARCH(r,s) Models," ISER Discussion Paper 0534, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  5. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes," ISER Discussion Paper 0535, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  7. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-62, July.
  8. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  9. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Weber, Enzo & Zhang, Yanqun, 2012. "Common influences, spillover and integration in Chinese stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 382-394.
  2. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Tansuchat, R., 2009. "Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-12, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Chang, C. & McAleer, M.J. & Tansuchat, R., 2010. "Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-14, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2010. "Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers, Asymmetries and Hedging in Major Oil Markets," Working Papers in Economics 10/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.

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