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Modelling the volatility transmission and conditional correlations between A and B shares in forecasting value-at-risk

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  • da Veiga, Bernardo
  • Chan, Felix
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the Chinese B share market reform on the conditional correlation and information transmission between A and B Shares issued in the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges. Daily returns for the Shanghai A share index (SHA), Shanghai B share index (SHB), Shenzen A share index (SZA) and Shenzen B share index (SZB) are used for the period 6 October 1992 to 8 February 2005. The impact of the reform on the volatility spillovers and volatility transmission were found to be significant. The results also suggest that all pairs of conditional correlations increase dramatically over the period analysed, but such increases began well before the reforms to the B share market. The importance of accommodating such an increase in conditional correlations and changes in the information transmission mechanism when estimating value-at-risk (VaR) thresholds is analysed. The results suggest that accommodating the B share market reform may not be particularly important in empirical analyses of volatility transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • da Veiga, Bernardo & Chan, Felix & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "Modelling the volatility transmission and conditional correlations between A and B shares in forecasting value-at-risk," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 155-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:78:y:2008:i:2:p:155-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.01.031
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    9. Suhejla Hoti & Felix Chan & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Country Risk Ratings," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-203, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Tansuchat, R., 2010. "Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-14, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2010. "Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1445-1455, November.
    3. Weber, Enzo & Zhang, Yanqun, 2012. "Common influences, spillover and integration in Chinese stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 382-394.
    4. Abdul Hakim, 2009. "Forcasting portofolio value-at-risk for international stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange emerging market evidence," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 13-26, April.
    5. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-641, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Lin, Wen-Yuan & Tsai, I-Chun, 2019. "Trader differences in Shanghai’s A-share and B-share markets: Effects on interaction with the Shanghai housing market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-1.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China A and B shares; Value-at-risk thresholds; Basel accord penalties; Multivariate conditional volatility; Conditional correlations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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