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Asymmetric Return and Volatility Responses to Composite News from Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas C. Chiang

    (Drexel University, U.S.A)

  • Cathy W.S. Chen

    (Feng Chia University, Taiwan)

  • Mike K.P. So

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, China)

Abstract

This paper examines the hypothesis that both stock returns and volatility are asymmetric functions of past information derived from domestic and U.S. stock-market news. The results show the presence of negative autocorrelation, which is consistent with the dominance of positive-feedback trading behavior. By employing a double-threshold autoregressive GARCH model to investigate four major index-return series, the study finds significant evidence to sustain the asymmetric hypothesis of stock returns. Specifically, this paper finds that negative news will cause a decline in national stock returns that is larger than the gain caused by good news of an equivalent magnitude. This also holds true for the conditional variance. The return appears to be more volatile and persistent when bad news hits the market than when good news does.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas C. Chiang & Cathy W.S. Chen & Mike K.P. So, 2007. "Asymmetric Return and Volatility Responses to Composite News from Stock Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(3-4), pages 179-210, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:11:y:2007:i:3-4:p:179-210
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    3. Cathy W. S. Chen & Bonny Lee, 2021. "Bayesian inference of multiple structural change models with asymmetric GARCH errors," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1078, September.
    4. Aityan, Sergey K. & Ivanov-Schitz, Alexey K. & Izotov, Sergey S., 2010. "Time-shift asymmetric correlation analysis of global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 590-605, December.
    5. Thomas Chiang & Lin Tan & Jiandong Li & Edward Nelling, 2013. "Dynamic Herding Behavior in Pacific-Basin Markets: Evidence and Implications," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 17(3-4), pages 165-200, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetry; threshold GARCH; volatility; Bayesian estimation; posterior-odds ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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