Asymmetric Risk and International Portfolio Choice
AbstractEmpirical research shows that stock volatilities and correlations between markets rise more after negative shocks than after positive returns shocks of the same size. We measure the importance of these asymmetric effects for mean-variance investors holding portfolios of international equities who use dynamic conditional covariance forecasts to reweight their portfolios. Portfolio weights are computed using ex ante predictions from symmetric GARCH DCC and asymmetric GJR ADCC models, and a spectrum of expected returns. Data are weekly returns to equity price indices for the USA, Japan, UK and Australia. We find that the majority of realised portfolio standard deviations are less when we reweight using the asymmetric covariance model. Reductions in portfolio risk are significant according to Diebold-Mariano tests. Investors who are moderately risk averse and have longer rebalancing horizons benefit more from the asymmetric model than less risk averse, shorter-horizon investors, and would be prepared to pay up to 107 basis points annually to use it instead of the symmetric model. Benefits are greater for investors holding US equities.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 160.
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia
Phone: +61 2 9514 7777
Fax: +61 2 9514 7711
Web page: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/index.html
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-08-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2005-08-13 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-08-13 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2005-08-13 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000.
"Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
- Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2006.
"Valuing volatility spillovers,"
Global Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, September.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- Merton, Robert C., 1980.
"On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
- Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991.
"No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
- Hentschel, Ludger & Campbell, John, 1992. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3220232, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Sheppard, Kevin & Cappiello, Lorenzo & Engle, Robert F., 2003.
"Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns,"
Working Paper Series
0204, European Central Bank.
- Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
- Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Uppal, Raman, 2002.
"Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
- Engle, Robert & Colacito, Riccardo, 2006. "Testing and Valuing Dynamic Correlations for Asset Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 238-253, April.
- Wu, Guojun, 2001. "The Determinants of Asymmetric Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 837-59.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- Cambell, J.Y. & Hentschel, L., 1990. "An Asymmetric Model Of Changing Volatility In Stock Returns," Papers 118, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Duncan Ford).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.