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The Factor-Spline-GARCH Model for High and Low Frequency Correlations

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  • Jose Gonzalo Rangel
  • Robert F. Engle

Abstract

We propose a new approach to model high and low frequency components of equity correlations. Our framework combines a factor asset pricing structure with other specifications capturing dynamic properties of volatilities and covariances between a single common factor and idiosyncratic returns. High frequency correlations mean revert to slowly varying functions that characterize long-term correlation patterns. We associate such term behavior with low frequency economic variables, including determinants of market and idiosyncratic volatilities. Flexibility in the time varying level of mean reversion improves the empirical fit of equity correlations in the US and correlation forecasts at long horizons.

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File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7B4E1A5756-493B-60CB-E94A-374092DE89B9%7D.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2009-03.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2009-03

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Web page: http://www.banxico.org.mx
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Keywords: Yield curve; forecasting; economic activity;

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Cited by:
  1. Peter Christoffersen & Hugues Langlois, 2011. "The Joint Dynamics of Equity Market Factors," CREATES Research Papers 2011-45, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. bauwens, Luc & hafner, Christian & pierret, Diane, 2011. "Multivariate volatility modeling of electricity futures," CORE Discussion Papers 2011011, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Tolga Cenesizoglu & Jonathan J. Reeves, 2013. "CAPM, Components of Beta and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-09, CIRANO.
  4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2012. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 18084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Acatrinei, Marius & Gorun, Adrian & Marcu, Nicu, 2013. "A DCC-GARCH Model To Estimate the Risk to the Capital Market in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 136-148, March.
  6. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," CORE Discussion Papers 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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