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Robust Ranking of Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension

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  • Massimiliano Caporin
  • Michael McAleer

    ()
    (University of Canterbury)

Abstract

During the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. Recent research has begun to examine MGARCH specifications in terms of their out-of-sample forecasting performance. We provide an empirical comparison of alternative MGARCH models, namely BEKK, DCC, Corrected DCC (cDCC), CCC, OGARCH Exponentially Weighted Moving Average, and covariance shrinking, using historical data for 89 US equities. We contribute to the literature in several directions. First, we consider a wide range of models, including the recent cDCC and covariance shrinking models. Second, we use a range of tests and approaches for direct and indirect model comparison, including the Model Confidence Set. Third, we examine how the robust model rankings are influenced by the crosssectional dimension of the problem.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 12/06.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:12/06

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Keywords: Covariance forecasting; model confidence set; robust model ranking; MGARCH; robust model comparison;

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Cited by:
  1. Nikolaus Hautsch & Lada M. Kyj & Peter Malec, 2013. "Do High-Frequency Data Improve High-Dimensional Portfolio Allocations?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-014, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Audrino, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting correlations during the late-2000s financial crisis: The short-run component, the long-run component, and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 43-60.

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