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Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts

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Author Info

  • Adam Clements

    ()
    (QUT)

  • Mark Doolan

    ()
    (QUT)

  • Stan Hurn

    ()
    (QUT)

  • Ralf Becker

    ()
    (University of Manchester)

Abstract

The performance of techniques for evaluating univariate volatility forecasts are well understood. In the multivariate setting however, the efficacy of the evaluation techniques is not developed. Multivariate forecasts are often evaluated within an economic application such as portfolio optimisation context. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of such techniques, along with traditional statistical based methods. It is found that utility based methods perform poorly in terms of identifying optimal forecasts whereas statistical methods are more effective.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Centre for Econometric Research in its series NCER Working Paper Series with number 41.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 23 Feb 2009
Date of revision: 25 Nov 2009
Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2009_50

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Related research

Keywords: Multivariate volatility; forecasts; forecast evaluation; Model confidence set;

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Cited by:
  1. Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2012. "Robust Ranking of Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2012-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  2. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Model Selection and Testing of Conditional and Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Papers in Economics 10/58, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  3. Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2010. "Ranking multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension: An Empirical Evaluation," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-20, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  5. Adam E Clements & Ayesha Scott & Annastiina Silvennoinen, 2012. "Forecasting multivariate volatility in larger dimensions: some practical issues," NCER Working Paper Series 80, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  6. Bonato, Matteo & Caporin, Massimiliano & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2013. "Risk spillovers in international equity portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 121-137.
  7. Valeri Voev, 2009. "On the Economic Evaluation of Volatility Forecasts," CREATES Research Papers 2009-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  8. BAUWENS, Luc & otranto, EDOARDO, 2013. "Modeling the dependence of conditional correlations on volatility," CORE Discussion Papers 2013014, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  9. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2014. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Changes of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2014_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Feb 2014.

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