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The Factor--Spline--GARCH Model for High and Low Frequency Correlations

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  • José Gonzalo Rangel
  • Robert F. Engle

Abstract

We propose a new approach to model high and low frequency components of equity correlations. Our framework combines a factor asset pricing structure with other specifications capturing dynamic properties of volatilities and covariances between a single common factor and idiosyncratic returns. High frequency correlations mean revert to slowly varying functions that characterize long-term correlation patterns. We associate such term behavior with low frequency economic variables, including determinants of market and idiosyncratic volatilities. Flexibility in the time-varying level of mean reversion improves both the empirical fit of equity correlations in the United States and correlation forecasts at long horizons.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07350015.2012.643132
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 109-124

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2011:i:1:p:109-124

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Cited by:
  1. Luc Bauwens & Christian M. Hafner & Diane Pierret, 2011. "Multivariate Volatility Modeling of Electricity Futures," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-063, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Tolga Cenesizoglu & Jonathan J. Reeves, 2013. "CAPM, Components of Beta and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-09, CIRANO.
  3. Peter Christoffersen & Hugues Langlois, 2011. "The Joint Dynamics of Equity Market Factors," CREATES Research Papers 2011-45, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. Acatrinei, Marius & Gorun, Adrian & Marcu, Nicu, 2013. "A DCC-GARCH Model To Estimate the Risk to the Capital Market in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 136-148, March.
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2012. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 18084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," CORE Discussion Papers 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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