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The nonlinear effects of expected and unexpected components of monetary policy on the dynamics of REIT returns

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  • Chang, Kuang-Liang
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    Abstract

    This paper examines empirically whether the expected and unexpected components of monetary policy have nonlinear impacts on the dynamics of REIT returns. Empirical results find the nonlinear response of REIT returns to expected and unexpected components of monetary policy. The unexpected component of monetary policy plays a more prominent role in influencing REIT returns than does the expected component of monetary policy. Specifically, unexpected contractionary monetary policy has a significantly adverse impact on REIT returns, and the adverse effect in a bust market is stronger than in a boom market. In addition, the unexpected monetary policy will also affect the boom-bust dynamics of REIT returns through its effect on the time-varying transition probability matrix. The tightening of the expected and unexpected components of monetary policy will enhance the probability that the REIT market will stay in the bust regime.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 911-920

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:911-920

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

    Related research

    Keywords: Expected and unexpected monetary policies Nonlinear effect REIT returns Markov switching;

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    Cited by:
    1. Hao Fang & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2013. "Are the Global REIT Markets Efficient by a New Approach?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 743-757, December.
    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2012. "Examining the stochastic behavior of REIT returns: Evidence from the regime switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 291-298.

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