Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock

Contents:

Author Info

  • Chang, Kuang-Liang
  • Chen, Nan-Kuang
  • Leung, Charles Ka Yui

Abstract

This paper confirms that a regime-switching model out-performs a linear VAR model in terms of understanding the system dynamics of asset returns. Impulse responses of REIT returns to either the federal funds rate or the interest rate spread are much larger initially but less persistent. Furthermore, the term structure acts as an amplifier of the impulse response for REIT return, a stabilizer for the housing counterpart under some regime, and, perhaps surprisingly, almost no role for the stock return. In contrast, GDP growth has very marginal effect in the impulse response for all assets.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23514/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23514.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23514

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: monetary policy; yield curve; REITs; house prices; Markov Regime Switching;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ling, David C & Naranjo, Andy, 1997. "Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-307, May.
  2. Bond, Shaun A & Patel, Kanak, 2003. "The Conditional Distribution of Real Estate Returns: Are Higher Moments Time Varying?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 319-39, March-May.
  3. K. C. Chan & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1990. "Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 431-452.
  4. Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2000. "Stationarity of Multivariate Markov-Switching ARMA Models," Working Papers 2000-32, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  5. John Cochrane, 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," NBER Working Papers 11193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 1348, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough & Ha-Chin Yi, 2005. "Finance, Investment and Investment Performance: Evidence from the REIT Sector," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 203-235, 03.
  9. Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Stock Volatility And The Crash Of '87," Papers 89-01, Rochester, Business - General.
  10. Glascock, John L & Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2002. "REIT Returns and Inflation: Perverse or Reverse Causality Effects?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 301-17, May.
  11. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
  12. Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Papers fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  14. Ferson, Wayne E, 1989. " Changes in Expected Security Returns, Risk, and the Level of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1191-1217, December.
  15. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  16. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1193-1224, September.
  17. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 2005. "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 11562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  19. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  21. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  22. Jin-Chuan Duan & Ivilina Popova & Peter Ritchken, 2002. "Option pricing under regime switching," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 116-132.
  23. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
  24. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, 07.
  25. Asbjørn T. Hansen & Rolf Poulsen, 2000. "A simple regime switching term structure model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 409-429.
  26. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 47-68, Fall.
  27. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
  28. Dennis R. Capozza & Paul J. Seguin, 1999. "Focus, Transparency and Value: The REIT Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 587-619.
  29. Glascock, John L & Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2000. "Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-94, March.
  30. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005. "Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return," Discussion Papers 00017, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  31. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  32. Ling T. He, & James. R. Webb & Neil Myer, 2003. "Interest Rate Sensitivities of REIT Returns," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21.
  33. Ko Wang & John Erickson & George Gau & Su Han Chan, 1995. "Market Microstructure and Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 85-100.
  34. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).
  35. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
  36. Marc Simpson & Sanjay Ramchander & James Webb, 2007. "The Asymmetric Response of Equity REIT Returns to Inflation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 513-529, May.
  37. C. Goodhart, 2001. "What Weight Should be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurementof Inflation?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 65, Netherlands Central Bank.
  38. Goodhart, Charles, 2001. "What Weight Should Be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(472), pages F335-56, June.
  39. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050 Elsevier.
  40. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
  41. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  42. Robert King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing Long Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 4156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Dennis R. Capozza & Paul J. Seguin, 1998. "Managerial Style and Firm Value," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 131-150.
  44. Froot, Kenneth & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  46. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  47. Lawrence Benveniste & Dennis R. Capozza & Paul J. Seguin, 2001. "The Value of Liquidity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 633-660.
  48. Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 1997. "Property company performance and real interest rates: a regime-switching approach," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 85-97, January.
  49. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
  50. Liu, Crocker H & Mei, Jianping, 1992. "The Predictability of Returns on Equity REITs and Their Co-movement with Other Assets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 401-18, December.
  51. Su Han Chan & Wai-Kin Leung & Ko Wang, 2005. "Changes in REIT Structure and Stock Performance: Evidence from the Monday Stock Anomaly," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 89-120, 03.
  52. Chan, Su Han & Erickson, John & Wang, Ko, 2002. "Real Estate Investment Trusts: Structure: Structure, Performance, and Investment Opportunities," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195155341.
  53. Don Bredin & Gerard O’Reilly & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-331, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Paul Goebel & David Harrison & Jeffrey Mercer & Ryan Whitby, 2013. "REIT Momentum and Characteristic-Related REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 564-581, October.
  2. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "The Dynamics of Housing Returns in Singapore: How Important are the International Transmission Mechanisms?," MPRA Paper 32255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
  4. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 32776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
  6. Nan-Kuang Chen & Yu-Hsi Chou & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2013. "Credit Constraint and the Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effect on House Prices," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 431-455, October.
  7. Cheng, Lichao & Jin, Yi, 2013. "Asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations: An empirical investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 24-27.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.