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Is Regime Switching in Stock Returns Important in Portfolio Decisions?

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  • Jun Tu

    ()
    (Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University, Singapore 178899)

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Abstract

The stock market displays regime switching between upturns and downturns. This paper provides a Bayesian framework for making portfolio decisions that takes this regime switching into account, together with asset pricing model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. The findings reveal that the economic value of accounting for regimes is substantially independent of whether or not model and parameter uncertainties are incorporated: the certainty-equivalent losses associated with ignoring regime switching are generally above 2% per year and can be as high as 10%. These results suggest that the more realistic regime switching model is fundamentally different from the commonly used single-state model, and hence should be employed instead in portfolio decisions irrespective of concerns about model or parameter uncertainty.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1181
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

Volume (Year): 56 (2010)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Pages: 1198-1215

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Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:56:y:2010:i:7:p:1198-1215

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Keywords: investments; regime switching; model uncertainty; parameter uncertainty; Bayesian analysis;

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Cited by:
  1. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Zhu, Jie, 2013. "Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4120-4133.
  2. Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2010. "Incorporating Economic Objectives into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice under Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 959-986, August.
  3. Turtle, H.J. & Zhang, Chengping, 2012. "Time-varying performance of international mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 334-348.
  4. Massimo Guidolin & Hening Liu, 2013. "Ambiguity Aversion and Under-diversification," Working Papers 483, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Konermann, Patrick & Meinerding, Christoph & Sedova, Olga, 2013. "Asset allocation in markets with contagion: The interplay between volatilities, jump intensities, and correlations," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 36-46.
  6. Ang, Andrew & Timmermann, Allan G, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 8480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
  8. Jing Wang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2013. "The reaction of international stock markets to Federal Reserve policy," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-30, March.

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