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Predicting stock returns

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  • Avramov, Doron
  • Chordia, Tarun
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBX-4KWTFMK-1/2/7942dbecd1247688774c384c0540483e
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 82 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 2 (November)
    Pages: 387-415

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:82:y:2006:i:2:p:387-415

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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    References

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    1. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios," NBER Working Papers 8788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Analyzing Investments Whose Histories Differ in Length," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    3. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    4. Klaas P. Baks, 2001. "Should Investors Avoid All Actively Managed Mutual Funds? A Study in Bayesian Performance Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 45-85, 02.
    5. Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993. "A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
    7. Dybvig, Philip H & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. " Differential Information and Performance Measurement Using a Security Market Line," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 383-99, June.
    8. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models: An Investment Perspective," CRSP working papers 497, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    9. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1995. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lubo Pástor, . "Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models," CRSP working papers 356, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    11. Frost, Peter A. & Savarino, James E., 1986. "An Empirical Bayes Approach to Efficient Portfolio Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 293-305, September.
    12. Litzenberger, Robert H. & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1979. "The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices : Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 163-195, June.
    13. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-98, July.
    14. Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2004. "Data-generating process uncertainty: What difference does it make in portfolio decisions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 385-421, May.
    15. Mark Grinblatt & Sheridan Titman, . "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    17. G. William Schwert, 2002. "Anomalies and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 9277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    19. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    20. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Investing in Equity Mutual Funds," CRSP working papers 532, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    21. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1990. "Posterior, predictive, and utility-based approaches to testing the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 7-38.
    22. Sharpe, William F., 1990. "Capital Asset Prices With and Without Negative Holding," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1990-3, Nobel Prize Committee.
    23. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
    24. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. " The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-40, March.
    25. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
    26. Doron Avramov, 2004. "Stock Return Predictability and Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 699-738.
    27. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    28. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    29. Shanken, Jay, 1990. "Intertemporal asset pricing : An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 99-120.
    30. Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-28.
    31. Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-90, June.
    32. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    33. Avramov, Doron & Wermers, Russ, 2006. "Investing in mutual funds when returns are predictable," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 339-377, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Avramov, Doron & Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2011. "Hedge funds, managerial skill, and macroeconomic variables," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 672-692, March.
    2. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
    3. Kim, J.W. & Leatham, D.J. & Bessler, D.A., 2007. "REITs' dynamics under structural change with unknown break points," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-58, March.
    4. Cosemans, M. & Frehen, R.G.P. & Schotman, P.C. & Bauer, R.M.M.J., 2009. "Efficient Estimation of Firm-Specific Betas and its Benefits for Asset Pricing Tests and Portfolio Choice," MPRA Paper 23557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 341-381.
    6. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7127, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Huang, Alex YiHou, 2012. "Asymmetric dynamics of stock price continuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1839-1855.
    8. Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2012. "The cross-section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," CFR Working Papers 09-03 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Leite, Paulo & Cortez, Maria Céu, 2014. "Style and performance of international socially responsible funds in Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 248-267.
    10. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
    11. Bangassa, Kenbata & Su, Chen & Joseph, Nathan L., 2012. "Selectivity and timing performance of UK investment trusts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1149-1175.
    12. Shanken, Jay & Tamayo, Ane, 2012. "Payout yield, risk, and mispricing: A Bayesian analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-152.
    13. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
    14. Lee, Jen-Sin & Huang, Gow-Liang & Kuo, Chin-Tai & Lee, Liang-Chien, 2012. "The momentum effect on Chinese real estate stocks: Evidence from firm performance levels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2392-2406.
    15. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2010. "Ex Post Portfolio Performance with Predictable Skewness and Kurtosis," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 191, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    16. Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 699-726.

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